Oh god. I think I’m gonna hurl.
Just when you thought the MSFT saga was over, in steps Carl Icahn.
You’ve got to be kidding me!
For the record, Icahn is not clueless about the web. He invested in How Stuff Works right before HSW sold for $250M to Discovery Networks. He’s also a savvy-enough media investor…
Digg this Blog
Share on Facebook
WatchMojo on Twitter
WatchMojo on YouTube
Add to Favorites
WatchMojo NewsletterI think companies have to be careful with their corporate blogs.
Pubmatic helps publishers eke out extra revenue - allegedly - by better managing the use of ad networks.
Right there, Pubmatic plays at the bottom of the barrel, which is ironic, because the ad network market has topped off.
Proof that the market topped off comes in two ways:
- look at the barrage of me-too deals in the space: Blue Lithium, Right Media, Doubleclick etc. etc. etc.
- look at the herd mentality at media companies: Forbes, Viacom, Martha Stewart have all launched ad networks.
Anyway, I’ve commented on the follies here before, but the craziest part of all of this is that coming up with systematic and market-based conclusions based on ad networks is just a sign that we’re getting stupid and lazy.
Marketers spend 15% of their budgets on ad networks because they like to experiment and some like to maximize reach etc. But using that 15% of after-thought spending to make a point about the general online ad market is as ridiculous as using the top 1% of real estate online to make a point.
Despite what some would say, TV executives are not dumb.
They spend more and more time being entertained and communicating online. Their kids are watching less and less TV. They see ratings are falling and advertisers fleeing online. But they are caught between a rock and a hard place.
They would love to start to put their content online, but with a lack of a revenue plan - let alone profitable business in sight - they cannot risk to accelerate the cannibalization they face.
Exasperating matters: content creators who have been used to television’s generous ways are not ready to move online, either.
I never really watched Law & Order, I don’t have the attention span to watch a 60 minute storyline. But that is nothing compared to the next generation who won’t even know what L&O is (see below the quote why I say that), thanks to comments like this:
A less-than enthusiastic approach to the Web from “Law & Order” mogul Dick Wolf. As part of its upfront presentation to advertisers on Monday, NBC announced new Web series debuting his summer from the creators of “The Office” and “Heroes.” We asked Dick Wolf if he plans any Web-only programming. His response: “Not until they start paying some money.”
That’s why I love waking up every day: each day, there are more opportunities for WatchMojo.com while TV companies brace for a future like print’s past.
Informal, non-scientific sample from a quick office poll:
- Of the employees here that are 27 and over, we all knew Law & Order but don’t watch it anymore.
- Of the employees here that are 22-26 and over, most knew what Law & Order was but didn’t or don’t watch it.
- Of the few interns and employees that are below 21, no one had a clue what Law & Order was.
‘Nuff said.
Mediapost’s Viewers Favor Product Placement Over Commercials — But What’s The Tipping Point? writes: three out of four TV viewers prefer product placement over commercials.
I think this is even stronger online.
Like it or not, you will seeing more and more product placement and integration in online video content where there is even more resistance to ad placements.
At WatchMojo.com, we’ve been exploring this with more and more advertisers and ad agencies; so long as it’s done tastefully and neither party is trying to mislead users, our results show that indeed users prefer that to ads, pre-roll etc.
I expect to see more and more of this, but few will be able to pull it off programming and distribution-wise, those who can will have the advantage over those who can’t.
Of course, there are other considerations, like being able to create low-cost programming until online ad sales really scale and take over TV revenues… but this is starting to be a no-brainer: performance and engagement-style ads are doomed to fail; pre-rolls will probably go the way of pop-ups (with post-rolls being as effective and welcome by advertisers as pop-unders) and by sheer market force, product placement and integration will have to be addressed, fine-tuned and mastered.
This is where tact and grace will come in play… admittedly.
Something we talked about back in 2006, today Financial Times and SAI cover it, too. Google’s search business is catching up to MSFT’s windows business and might surpass it in 2009, I was being conservative, apparently.
Here is what I penned back in 2006:
So in 2010, Google’s current historical growth rate projects a revenue figure of $34 billion, with 25% profit margin of $8.2 billion, and with a P/E of 35, could technically command an enterprise value of $287 billion. It currently boasts some $10 billion, so at these levels, it would carry enough cash to push up its market cap northwards of $300 billion.
Today, MSFT has a market cap of $284 billion, and that includes a wallop of cash.
Tale of the tape: Google $287 billion; MSFT $284 billion…
There you have it. Told you it’s not a bubble, we’re actually talking revenues, profits and P/E.
Read it all here.
PLAY
