Daily Motion is escalating the battle for #3 in their space (after YouTube and MySpace TV).
Online video advertising is growing, quickly.
Online video advertising is where search advertising was in 2000-01: a major part of the web ecosystem desperately looking for a business model.
Unlike search - where traditional media companies failed to invest and even new media companies gave up in favor of portaldom - a lot of companies are vying for online video supremacy. My read on it is that we will never have a Google of video. That’s right, even YouTube - incidentally owned by Google - won’t command the kind of revenue within its segment that Google does. The reason for that is lack of competition and monetization ability. On the former, YouTube has a lot of competition in the monetization race.
Either way, looking at the stats, the numbers are impressive:
An estimate of the US online video ad market for 2009 - set in 2004: $657 million | Source.
An estimate of the US online video ad market for 2009 - set in 2005: $1.5 billion | Source.
An estimate of the US online video ad market for 2010 - set in 2006: $2.3 billion | Source.
An estimate of the US online video ad market for 2010 - set in late 2006: $3 billion | Source.
An estimate of the US online video ad market for 2011 - set in 2007: $4.3 billion | Source.
An estimate of the Worldwide online video ad market for 2011 - set in 2007: $10 billion | Source.
An estimate of the US online video ad market for 2012 - set in late 2007: $7.1 billion | Source.
An estimate of the US online video ad market for 2012 - set in early 2008: $6.6 billion (all broadband at $12.2B) | Source.
It’s thus not surprising to see the sheer volume of money that is being invested in the space, here is an incomplete snapshot:
Judging from that, investors better be patient because only YouTube has exited, handsomely, to the tune of $1,650,000,000 (that’s $1.65B, in case you’re wondering). I’d like to remind everyone that more money does not equal more return, but I digress.
It’s worth noting, too, that YouTube raised less money than everyone else in its peer group but I highly doubt anyone in that group will be worth more, ever, than YouTube.
I am personally hoping that WatchMojo.com pulls the same feat in its peer group. I won’t say “jokes aside” because I am not exactly kidding, admitting that yes, indeed, we’ve raised - and spent - less than $5M to build our content and distribution, which is actually bigger than some of our peers. You might notice that I do not call the players in our group competitors because we are the bastard children of the broader video space: everyone is betting heavily on platforms and user-generated content and our category is definitely going against the grain.
Lastly, I think most of these players are pricing themselves out of exits:
- IPOs will be very hard: yes online advertising is growing quickly but I suspect traditional media (that owns rights to the content) will garner a big share of the online video ad pie. In this context, hitting $100M in revenues or more becomes very challenging, especially with the low-quality content most of these sites are trying to monetize.
- M&A becomes nearly impossible because you need to sell for more than you have raised, and judging by Revver’s fate (who raised $12.7M and sold for less than $5M) that becomes quite hard.
It’s a good thing I am no low-expectations mofo… just because we have not raised boatloads of cash (yet anyway) does not mean we’re not gunning for a big payday one day, but realizing that such a day might not materialize tomorrow, I respectfully think a lot of the companies in the broader video space and our content creation space in particular have dug too deep of a hole for themselves.
To each their own.
This is a work in progress, I am adding CMS platforms (Brightcove, Maven, etc.) and CDNs (Limelight, Akamai, etc.) as we speak. If you have more companies and funding amounts, or if I made a typo, leave the correction in the comments or email me at ash@mojosupreme.com.
The next panel sought to answer the question: Is there money in Long Tail Video?” or mainly: how do you make money. The panel was moderated by Jeremy Liew, from Lightspeed Venture Partners.
“There’s 150 people in this room who believe there is money in video, so let’s ask how do you make it,” starts Liew.
Matt Sanchez, VideoEgg: “We’ve seeing pre-roll, or mid- and post-roll because that is close to TV ads, but those work with long form content. We have taken the market with an invitation overlay, it’s user controlled and that is something that can be demanded, even if done in conjunction with rolls. Pre-rolls are disruptive and deflate volume of streams, you are seeing more and more adoption of overlays.” The company supports 4 units, with overlays being the key.
Matt Wasserlauf, Broadband Enterprises: “30 second spots is a lot to ask the online viewer, and advertisers are making changes. The pre-roll is the anchor, all other ad units feed off the pre-roll. Repurposed 30-second TV ads get tired, in 2008 you will see a lot of great short form pre-roll creative, optimized for the Web, let’s hold judgment and see what comes of pre-roll ads.
Tod Sacerdoti, BrightRoll: “BR is agnostic to any one unit, we aggregate audiences and then resell it to marketers, it could be in any format. What you see mainly is branded content and branded advertising. But despite what is said about pre-rolls, pre-rolls is the most effective units. A lot of progress on standardization of hosting and serving and tracking of video ads, you see this with banner ads, why not video ads?” BR’s majority is pre and mid-roll ads, and the company supports 5 ad units.
Jayant Kadambi, YuMe: “The most successful ad format has a lot to do with the contextual relevance of ads to the content, and not really the format. We work with ad agencies and support any new idea agencies have to promote the idea. The bulk of our business remains pre-roll type of ad units.”
Everyone agrees that the lack of cross-site, cross-platform measurement services hurt the draw of online video. There are players like Tubemogul, Hey Spread, Vidmetrix and even Veoh who have started to address these, but despite the pros of each player there, those services remain very limited (they only work with some of the online file sharing sites, for example, and not the major portals like MSN video, AOL, Yahoo! etc.)
Related:
- Why Video Egg is hinting at suing Google over the overlay?
- Brightcove vs. Brightroll vs. Yume vs. Scancout etc.
- Will video become larger than paid search?
- Has the bubble in file sharing video platforms moved to ad networks?
Apparently, traditional media’s love and hate relationship with YouTube took an interesting turn tonight: NBC canceled its channel on YouTube.
I won’t comment on that directly since WatchMojo.com is a content provider on YouTube and enough people are already commenting on the unconfirmed news, but I’ve been meaning to look at the interesting dynamic between traditional media companies and web video startups, and this is one more chess move in the big game that’s really only starting.
When you realize that Web Video is a $150B market cap opportunity by 2011, but not for traditional media and What The Math Suggests Old Media Should Do with Web Video (invest, not acquire), it’s not a surprise to see media companies wanting to be in control of their destiny.
NewTeeVee has a fantastic overview of media companies’ investments in web video startups, which I will shamelessly copy, paste, update (they forgot CBS’ stake in Spotrunner, for one, amongst a few others). I’ll also add some color.
Does it help or hurt companies when they get an investment by media companies?
Like most fine questions, answer is: It depends.
Why Strategic Money Helps
When it comes to strategic investments, one school of thought is that it encourages VCs to invest because they see a clear connection between investment and exit. From an operational perspective, clearly, getting a media company to invest in you will help in terms of validation, sales and marketing. Right Media said that they got a lot more calls for business after Yahoo! bought 20% for $45M. In their case, it also helped prop up the value of the company, subsequently selling the remaining 80% for $680M. Of course, what helped Right Media mainly was the market environment that saw 24/7 RealMedia, aQuantive and Doubleclick get acquired for high multiples.
Why Strategic Money Hurts
Now, the flip side on selling a stake to media companies: The other school of thought suggests that this also closes potential upside in any negotiations: if (say for example) NBC owns a strategic stake, that is great in many ways, but they might ask for a First Right of Refusal (FROR) in any M&A talks, meaning that it’s their right but not their obligation to match any offer and buy you.
The problem with this scenario is not in theory but in practice, because a would-be buyer, say CBS for example, would not even consider looking at buying you because it means they have to spend time and money on due diligence and then the holder of the FROR can walk in, match the offer and win.
Worse off, there’s nothing that forces the holder of the right to initiate talks. They have the option to do so, but not the obligation. It’s also not like you have the conceptual equivalent of a pull option, which is the right to sell. So while I myself love the allure and operational upside of getting a media company to back you, I also understand why some investors that I talk to don’t share that optimism and bullishness.
So technically, while some amongst the “smart money” might love strategic money, as an entrepreneur, I’d be wary (in all candor, I’d also consider it and reach out for it because the benefits are long and clear, too).
How to Structure a Strategic Investment by a Media Company?
When I was at the Tech Crunch 40 conference, Jason Calacanis (who raised money from News Corp. for his Mahalo project) suggested that the optimal way is to have an institutional investor (such as a VC) set the terms and have other strategic investors tag along, instead of have the media company set the terms. I think that is probably the wisest way to go, though one might not always have the luxury, of course.
What About Derivatives in Lieu of Equity?
Of course, some times a media company does not actually invest cash, but they strike a business deal and want to get some skin in the game. In this case, you can look at derivatives, such as warrants.
We’ve seen this happen before, too. Google did that when AOL and Yahoo! used Google to power their search engine and did not actually invest any money.
I’m not recommending any entrepreneurs to pitch warrants in lieu of equity in exchange for a cash investment… I’m pretty sure if you have NBC, CBS, News Corp., Walt Disney’s ABC, etc. sitting in front of you and showing interest to invest cold hard cash and you suggest warrants, they’d spit in your face and pile-drive you into the boardroom.
I’m just saying that in those rare events when it’s a business development partnership, an entrepreneur should consider warrants, as Google did, to get the larger media company interested in seeing you grow, cause the potential capital gain is a nice incentive and bonus.
Investments Made by Media Companies in Web Video Related Startups
Anyway, here are some investments by media company courtesy of NewTeeVee, with a bunch more I’ve added. I’ll continue to update this and if I missed anyone email me at ash@mojosupreme.com.
- Brightcove: video-publishing tool provider
- BroadLogic: video processing chips (with Comcast Interactive Capital)
- Ripe Digital Entertainment: on-demand TV network for young men
- ScanScout: contextually relevant video ads
- Veoh Networks: online video platform
- Visible World: video advertising for TV and broadband (with Comcast Interactive Capital)
Comcast Interactive Capital (CMCSA)
- BlackArrow: video advertising platform for cable
- BroadLogic: video processing chips (with Time Warner Investments)
- Revver: video-sharing with revenue sharing for all creators
- RGB Networks: video networking systems
- Visible World: video advertising for TV and broadband (with Time Warner Investments)
- Vitrue: white-label video sites and advertising services
Peacock Equity (GE)
- Firebrand: commercials as content portal (launching next week)
- Adify: contextual video ads.
- NBC also has an investment in Worldwide Biggies, a digital studio.
Hearst Interactive Media (HTV)
- Brightcove: video-publishing tool provider
- Sling Media: place-shifting hardware devices (sold to EchoStar)
- The NewsMarket: news video archive
- Worldwide Biggies: digital studio
Steamboat Ventures (Wall Disney’s VC Arm)
- Move Networks: streaming television platform
- 56.com: Chinese video-sharing site
- CTS Media: Chinese video advertising
- Netmovie: Chinese VOD
- UUSee: Chinese Internet TV platform
Yes, I noticed the obsession over China.
Bertelsmann Digital Media Investments
- UITV: Chinese Internet TV site
- Joost
- Spotrunner
- Stake in male-oriented video-sharing site Break.com.
- Brightcove: video-publishing tool provider
Yes, everyone owns Brightcove.
That’s just the investments, if you consider acquisitions, the list would be longer, and that’s something I’ll start working on.
You might notice the notable absentee is News Corp., and I don’t think it’s a coincidence.
Yes, they own 5% warrants in ROO, with the option to buy 5% more, but that was given to them… When News Corp. makes investments, they’re not small, they’re in large entities, see for yourself.
As I said, this is not a coincidence. When I was attending another conference, Paid Content’s EconSM shindig, I was in the audience when Mike Lang, Executive Vice President Business Development & Strategy at Fox said that News Corp. wasn’t interested “in leasing companies, he was looking at buying companies” and if I were News Corp., I’d share that outlook, frankly…
Not all media companies have that outlook, of course: it is interesting that CBS’ Quincy Smith and Michael Marquez have decided to take CBS Interactive in a different direction by mainly investing in - and not buying - young new media companies.
Time will tell which decision yields the best results.
Related on HipMojo.com:
- What Old Media Should Do with Web Video: The Math
- Web Video is a $150B market cap opportunity by 2011, but not for traditional media.
Scanscout, often described as Ad Sense for Video, just raised some more money from Time Warner, reports Tech Crunch, beating the press release.
History repeats itself, clearly, in the video space, too. Last year you saw VCs investing in Series A rounds for video file sharing sites. Now that is rare, with VCs investing in Series B, C and D rounds. Think Daily Motion, Veoh, Metacafe.
Earlier this year, you saw many first round investments in the video ad network space, we suggested the bubble had moved there. Now you are seeing less and less VC rounds in ad networks, too, but seeing more late round investments. Video Egg is onto Series D, and Scanscout today is a later round too.
Next area of VC interest, and it has already started, is video content.
Paid Content adds:
Financial terms were not disclosed. Time Warner Senior VP Rachel Lam, who will be joining ScanScout’s board, said the company intends to use ScanScout’s technology to take advantage of its growing array of online video content. ScanScout had raised $7 million back in May from General Catalyst Partners to develop its contextual advertising technology and to expand its staff.
Mind you, $7M is a lot, sure, but when you consider that video advertising is a $150B opportunity by 2011, what’s $7M for the supposed “AdSense of Video.” Of course, there are a lot of players in video, so time will tell if ScanScout can deliver on the hype.
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