From NewScientist.com:
IS POKER a game of skill or luck? For regular players that’s a no-brainer, but showing that skill wins out has proven surprisingly difficult for mathematicians. Now two studies that tapped the vast amounts of data available from online casinos have provided some of the best evidence yet that poker is skill-based. Many hope that the results will help to roll back laws and court decisions that consider poker gambling, and therefore illegal in certain contexts.
Most players insist that poker is predominantly skill. “I depended solely on that skill for my food and rent,” says Darse Billings, a former professional player who co-founded the Computer Poker Research Group at the University of Alberta in Edmonton, Canada. In many jurisdictions, however, poker websites and organised games are heavily regulated or even banned under gambling laws, partly because chance is considered the dominant factor.
Previous attempts to quantify the relationship between skill and chance have involved building theoretical models or playing software bots against each other. However, Ingo Fiedler and Jan-Philipp Rock at the University of Hamburg’s Institute of Law and Economics in Germany argue that these methods fail to reflect real games, and this may explain why some courts and lawmakers have yet to be swayed by them. So over three months, the pair recorded the outcomes of 55,000 online players playing millions of hands of poker’s most popular variant, “no-limit Texas hold ‘em”.
They reasoned that if skill dominated, this would eventually show itself over many hands, so they chose two factors to define this threshold. Firstly, they measured how much each player’s winnings and losses fluctuated: the higher this variance, the greater the role of chance. Secondly, they measured the average value of a player’s winnings or losses: highly skilled or terrible players would do noticeably better or worse than would be expected by chance alone.
Based on these factors, they found that the threshold at which the effects of skill start to dominate over chance is typically about 1000 hands, equivalent to about 33 hours of playing in person or 13 hours online, where the rate of play is brisker. So although chance plays a role, they suggest that because most players easily play this many hands in a lifetime, poker is more a game of skill (Gaming Law Review and Economics, DOI: 10.1089/glre.2008.13106). “Our results should have greater impact on the legislators than the results of other studies; they refer to reality,” says Fiedler.
The threshold at which the effects of skill start to dominate is typically about 1000 handsHowever, Sean McCulloch, a computer scientist at Ohio Wesleyan University in Delaware, says the results may fail to sway a judge or jury. “If you want to use a mathematical argument as the basis for legislation or court decisions, it has to be easy to explain, easy to follow and intuitive,” he says.
McCulloch used an alternative method to explore skill and chance in poker, also based on real games. Together with Paco Hope of the software consultancy Cigital of Washington DC, he looked at 103 million hands of Texas hold ‘em played at the PokerStars online site and calculated how many were won as the result of a “showdown” - in which players win thanks to their cards beating their opponents’ cards - versus those that were won because all the other players folded. They argue that the latter hands must be pure skill, because no one shows their cards. Their analysis, released on 27 March, revealed that 76 per cent of games did not end in a showdown, suggesting that skill is the dominant factor.
John Pappas of the Poker Players Alliance (PPA) in Washington DC says both studies are badly needed to help properly define the law. In many US states, judges and juries use a so-called “predominance test” to gauge skill and chance, based on the opinions of expert witnesses. Although courts in Pennsylvania, Colorado and South Carolina have all ruled this year that poker is a game of skill, not all courts do. “It would not be wise for any of us to rest on our laurels,” Pappas says. The PPA expects the Cigital study will now be used as evidence to fight appeals against court rulings that decided poker is a skill game.
However, Preston Oade of law firm Holme Roberts and Owen in Denver, Colorado, who worked on a separate poker case in Colorado, cautions that the studies still may not persuade juries, as this is a “moral, political and social issue”, as well as a mathematical one.
Pappas hopes the studies will help to persuade the US Congress to grant poker an exemption from the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act, due to come into force in December 2009. The act will make it illegal in some states for banks to process transactions from gambling websites.
from GamingAlerts.co.uk:
US online poker players will be rejoicing after a new ruling from a Pennsylvanian Judge has deemed Texas Hold’em, the popular poker game, is not gambling and so not illegal.
The ruling came after Judge Thomas A James Jr stated that the game known as Texas Hold’em was considered to be more a game of skill and not chance and so did not constitute as gambling.
The case involved a man who ran a $1 – $2 no Texas Hold’em poker game in his garage. He was acquitted of all 20 charges against him and the games dealer. Judge James explained that, “the dominant factor test that is applied to games of skill can also be applied to poker.”
Citing a study which showed that expert poker players did not rely on the cards they were dealt or those that flopped but instead, used their skills to minimise their losses on bad hands and also to maximise their winnings on big hands.
Poker Players Alliance Executive Director John Pappas, told Poker News Daily, “Clearly the judge had an understanding of how poker is played….the decision sets an excellent bar for us in the future.”
from United Press International:
Gambling is widespread among U.S. adolescents and young adults ages 14 through 21, a University at Buffalo Research Institute on Addictions study reveals.
Principal investigator John W. Welte said the results of the first national survey of its kind show problem gambling — described as gambling with three or more negative consequences, such as risking more than intended or stealing money to gamble — in the past year occurred at a rate of 2.1 percent among youth 14 to 21, or about 750,000 young problem gamblers nationwide.
In addition, 11 percent of the 2,274 teens and young adults surveyed in the random telephone survey gambled twice per week or more, considered frequent gambling. Sixty-eight percent of the youth interviewed reported that they had gambled at least once in the past year.
“In a society where young people are increasingly exposed to gambling influences, there is cause for concern,” Welte said in a statement.
The researchers found gambling increased with each major life change such as employment or marriage. Those who worked full-time were more likely to gamble, those who were not students were more likely to gamble frequently and those who lived independently were more likely to gamble and to be problem gamblers.
BATON ROUGE, LA–(Marketwire - March 20, 2008) - Diamond I, Inc. announced today that its second online casino will open for Poker enthusiasts next Tuesday, March 25, 2008.
“Our success with IslandBlueCasino.net, not only with attracting players but with the revenues from our click-through advertising program, made the decision to open a second free Poker site,” said DMOI’s CEO, David Loflin. “We believe our new site will be well received.”
DMOI recently announced that IslandBlueCasino.net had entertained over 25,000 distinct hits during February 2008, a 66% increase over November 2007’s number of hits. The company also announced that the increased site traffic allowed for IslandBlueCasino.net to continue to derive monthly revenues from its click-through advertising program with www.Amazon.com.
About Diamond I, Inc. (www.wificasino.net)
Recently, DMOI opened its first free online Poker web site, IslandBlueCasino.net, a for-entertainment-only site legal for users in the United States. Island Blue Casino was designed to create a revenue stream for the company, through the use of click-through advertising programs, such that offered by www.Amazon.com.
In addition, DMOI owns the rights to patent-pending voice-recognition and fingerprint biometric security technologies. These security technologies will be incorporated into DMOI’s WifiCasino GS wireless, hand-held gaming system, which includes the hand-held gaming unit known as the “GS3.” With the passage of Nevada Law AB471, which authorizes the use of mobile communication devices for gaming in public areas in Nevada casinos. DMOI continues to seek a hotel/casino to serve as the demonstration site for its WifiCasino.
Also, DMOI has determined to diversify its business interests, with an initial effort focused on the oil and gas industry. DMOI expects to announce other diversification initiatives in the future.
I’m biased since we’ve worked with gambling clients forever. But I think the US is hypocritical because gambling advertisers pretty much underwrote much of the web’s development.
The United States must change an Internet gambling law that discriminates against European companies by preventing them from offering services in the U.S. market, the European Union’s top trade official said on Thursday.
“What we need to see is a change in U.S. legislation that removes that discrimination against EU operators,” EU Trade Commissioner Peter Mandelson told reporters before heading to Capitol Hill to discuss the issue with U.S. lawmakers.
“It’s not in the interest of American consumers to have good responsible competitors in this market excluded by regulatory mechanisms.”
The European Union and other trading partners have been in compensation talks with the United States over Washington’s decision to retroactively remove gambling services from the market-opening commitments it made as part of the 1994 Uruguay Round world trade agreement.
The United States took that step after the World Trade Organization ruled in a case brought by the tiny Caribbean nation Antigua and Barbuda.
Congress has since passed a broader online gambling ban.
EU-based gambling firms have urged the bloc to seek as much as $100 billion in compensation for being shut out of the U.S. market.
Read more.
A Brussels think-tank has accused the US government of reneging on commitments made to the World Trade Organisation (WTO) over internet gaming.
Read more.
SHANGHAI, CHINA — (MARKET WIRE) — May 29, 2007 — Shanghai eWorldChina Information Technologies Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of eWorld Interactive, Inc. and Shanghai Welfare Lottery Center announced the formal signing of an agreement to operate China’s official online Welfare Lottery.
The agreement makes eWorld the online sales agent for the Shanghai Welfare Lottery Center, which administers the largest segment of the Chinese lottery system. eWorld’s rapidly growing user base will be able to select lottery numbers via the Company’s portal www.17dian.cn and complete the transaction through its online banking service.
“This is an exciting development for the Company as it will give us access to China’s enormous and growing lottery market as well as provide another avenue for entertainment for our users,” remarked eWorld CEO Guy Peckham. eWorld has been working with the Shanghai Lottery Center to open the online lottery market in China, a move that will allow the country to catch up with global trends.
China’s lottery market surpassed US$10B in 2006 and is expected to continue growing at double digit CAGR in the coming years according to the Chinese Ministry of Finance, which oversees all of China’s lottery sales. Of the US$10B spent on lotteries in China over US$6B was generated via the Welfare Lottery system, representing a 20% increase over 2005. The Chinese government is actively promoting China’s welfare lottery system through traditional over-the-counter sales as well as online applications. Proceeds from all lottery sales are split 3 ways with 50% going to the winners, 35% going to fund social welfare program and the remaining 15% going towards lottery administration.
eWorldChina launched an Instant Lottery program as the first online Welfare Lottery product where a winning number will be drawn every 30 minutes. The Company will then launch an additional 6 online Welfare Lottery games for the second quarter of 2007.
According to Mr. Peckham, the Company is to receive 6.5% of all lottery sales conducted through the Company’s website and expects this to result in a significant increase in projected revenues
ST. PAUL, Minn., Jan. 23 /PRNewswire/ — A detailed study released today by the Minnesota Indian Gaming Association (MIGA) shows that rural Minnesota communities got the lion’s share of a statewide $429 million in direct economic benefit from 2005 tribal casino employment in the state. The study was conducted by University of Minnesota researchers C. Ford Runge, Ph.D., Distinguished McKnight University Professor of Applied Economics and Law, and Barry Ryan, M.S.Runge said rural Minnesota derived $285 million in direct economic benefit from tribal casino jobs in 2005, including $211 million in payroll, $65 million in employment taxes, $48 million in healthcare benefits, $10 million in retirement savings, and $4 million in other employee benefits such as child care accounts, education and tuition assistance.
“These figures are particularly significant when you compare casino jobs to other jobs in the rural Minnesota leisure and hospitality industry,” Runge said. “Casino jobs represent 18% of the rural hospitality industry payroll. The benefits that accompany these jobs are significantly better than those offered by other hospitality industry employers in rural areas.”
The study shows that the 9,100 rural casino employees are more likely than other leisure and hospitality workers to have healthcare and retirement benefits, paid time off, life or disability insurance, and other benefits such as flexible savings accounts and tuition assistance. Tribal casino workers are also more likely to be full-time employees and have higher starting wages than other leisure and hospitality workers.
Ryan noted that many rural casinos are the largest or second largest employers in their home counties. “In Pine and Mille Lacs Counties, for example, the Mille Lacs Band accounts for 17% of the total workforce payroll. In Cass County, the Leech Lake Band accounts for 13%. In Renville County, the Lower Sioux Community accounts for 12% of total wages paid. These wages represent a significant revenue source for county governments.”
Statewide, the $429 million in economic benefits from 12,900 tribal casino jobs includes $335 million in payroll, state and federal employment taxes of $90 million, medical and dental healthcare benefits of $66 million, retirement savings of $15 million and more than $7 million in other benefits such as life and disability insurance, flexible childcare savings accounts and tuition assistance.
Runge noted that the slight decline in casino employment from 13,339 in 2000 to 12,900 in 2005 may reflect the maturity of the gaming market. Over the past six years, new capital investment on tribal lands has been in ancillary facilities such as hotels, marinas and golf courses, he said, and not in new or substantially expanded gaming operations.
Kevin Leecy, chairman of the Bois Forte Band of Chippewa and a member of the MIGA Board, said the current study confirms what tribes have known for a long time — that tribal casinos are a major economic asset to the rural areas in which they are located.
“We hadn’t done a statewide economic impact analysis since 2000,” Leecy said. “We wanted to focus on the impact of the jobs we have created because we’ve always believed that’s one of the most important benefits of tribal gaming, especially in rural Minnesota.” Leecy noted that Governor Rudy Perpich, who signed the state’s first gaming compacts in 1989, saw tribal gaming primarily as a rural job creation tool.
“Governor Perpich wanted to create jobs that would last on the Iron Range and in rural Minnesota,” he said. “We shared that vision, and we made it real. Today we have all the facts we need to prove that Indian gaming jobs are a positive force for economic prosperity throughout rural Minnesota.”
The complete study will be available soon on the MIGA website,http://www.mnindiangaming.com.
HARRISBURG, Pa., Jan. 12 /PRNewswire/ — The Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board has begun a weekly posting on its web site of gaming revenues from licensed operators. The reports provide a breakdown on wagering, payouts to patrons and the amount of machines operating.Gaming Control Board Executive Director Anne Neeb said these reports are another step by the agency to provide information about Pennsylvania’s newest industry.
“The gaming industry is up and running in the Commonwealth, and citizens are very interested in seeing exactly how much money is being generated,” Neeb explained. “The amount of revenues at these facilities has been tremendous and it is important that this information be available.”
The reports will continue to expand as new slots casinos begin operation. Thus far, Mohegan Pocono Downs in Wilkes-Barre and Philadelphia Park in Bensalem are operating. Three additional slots casinos at existing horse racing tracks are expected to open over the next several months. Those facilities are Harrah’s Chester Downs in Chester, Presque Isle Downs in Erie, and The Meadows in Washington County. Later in 2007, a sixth facility at Penn National Race Track in Grantville is expected to begin slots operation.
The revenue reports are accessible by visiting http://www.pgcb.state.pa.us and choosing the Gaming Revenue link.
According to their lawyer:
Betonsports PLC., the British Internet gambling business that last month consented to an order banning it from the U.S. market, will repay the nearly 5,000 customers who have filed for refunds, its attorney, Jeffrey Demerath of the St. Louis-based law firm Armstrong Teasdale, told Bloomberg News Friday.
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