All signs point to the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) having more power in the 21st century… and US dominance to end. But how much power will the US keep?
The National Intelligence Council’s Global Trends report, issued every four years to document looming problems, predicts a new global system will emerge where no single state dominates.
“By 2025, the U.S. will find itself as one of a number of important actors on the world stage, albeit still the most powerful one,” the report by U.S. intelligence agencies says.
China is poised to have more impact than any other country, but the report also foresees a rise by India and Russia.
If trends continue, the report predicts China will have the world’s second-largest economy by 2025, be a leading military power, while becoming the world’s largest importer of natural resources and also the biggest polluter.
What is striking, the report notes, is that none of the three rising stars adhere to a Western liberal model but rather a system of state capitalism, under which the government takes a key role in economic management.
The transition will leave a world system “almost unrecognizable” in comparison to today, the report says.
It says there will be an unprecedented transfer of wealth and power from the West to East, with rising oil and commodity prices in the Gulf States and Russia and lower production costs shifting manufacturing and service industries to Asia. While terrorism is unlikely to disappear by 2025, the report says its appeal could decline if economic growth continues in the Middle East.
The report also suggests al-Qaeda may “decay sooner” than expected after alienating supporters by killing Muslims in its attacks and failing to gain traction in large parts of the Islamic world.
With more than 1.2 billion more people in the world by 2025, natural resource issues such as energy, food and water will be the increasing focus of conflicts, the report says.
The effects of climate change will be uneven, but the report mentions Canada alongside Russia as two countries who will benefit from it over the next 20 years.
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