Some stats on mobile, from eMarketer, from ZDNet:
The mobile advertising space, which is supposed to be a $13.9 billion market by 2011 according to eMarketer, than be an agent in the massive TV advertising market.
“We believe mobile internet advertising should develop faster than PC internet ads, however, precisely because we already have a precedent and the expansion should be much more global in nature. In addition, should Google achieve similar dominance in mobile that it has achieved in PC-based online advertising (we estimate 45% of every online ad dollar will go through Google’s system in 2008), the contribution to revenues could be meaningful. Getting even 10% of the mobile advertising market in 2011 would make mobile a larger contributor (on a net revenue basis) than Google’s entire affiliate business today.”
I’d be making a considerable understatement by saying that we’re very bullish on wireless entertainment and mobile advertising. We even published a large chunk of our business plan pertaining to the segment’s size here.
Anyway, the ZDNet post argues that Google should think small when it comes to acquisitions, arguing that YouTube and dMarc are billion dolalr busts. It would be highly ironic if YouTube became this generation’s Broadcast.com, of course, but since Google has already folded Google Video into YouTube, then I doubt that will happen, at least exactly as it did with Broadcast.com.
Looking at some of Google’s mobile acquisitions, it’s clear that Google wants to exert its Web dominance onto wireless. That’s no guarantee, but if Google is poised to overtake MSFT in market cap and become the world’s first trillion dollar company, it only makes sense to be aggressive in wireless, since we’ve already acknowledged that the Web’s next Google will hail from wireless, the fastest content delivery platform ever, so shouldn’t Google aspire to be the next Google? After all, had MSFT realized how huge the Web would be, and then realized how big search would be, the next MSFT would have been MSFT, and not Google, which has replaced MSFT as the leading monopoly online.
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