I agree that talks of MySpace’s demise are overblown, but judging by Facebook’s euphoria, you have to ask yourself if it’s more about Facebook’s seemingly limitless potential more so than MySpace’s demise.
I think the blogosphere - and mainstream media in fact - has lost.its.marbles over Facebook. I think this has something to do with
a) we getting bored of Google’s dominance,
b) having seen MySpace’s explosive growth, nothing is unrealistic
c) way too many soothsayers online trying to be “first one to make an outlandish” claim.
Oh, I’m in this lot, when I write things like “Google to surpass MSFT in market cap by 2010,” you’d think just because someone handed me an Excel spreadsheet and I can find my way around an income statement, I knew what I was talking out.
Jokes aside, this morning I woke up and things had just escalated dramatically since last week’s launch of the Facebook’s platform. Bloggers were trying to one-up one another with more and more outlandish claims: yesterday I wrote “Facebook’s 100M users a matter of when, not if,” and this morning Paul Allen (the lesser) claimed “Facebook to be Largest Social Network.”
Not to be outdone, VC Josh Kopelman pretty much called for the demise of MySpace. Fred Wilson chimed in too.
Anyway, the following post is sheer madness and really more for entertainment, but I extended my usership growth model for Facebook and ran some numbers trying to estimate when:
a) Facebook will surpass MySpace, after all, even though MySpace has 100M users vs. 25M for Facebook, apparently, MySpace is experiencing a weekly growth rate of 1.92%, compared to Facebook’s WGR of 3%. I got 1.92% by simply dividing 200% growth over 2 years divided by 104 weeks (MySpace has in fact tripled in the two years that Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp. bought it). For Facebook’s 3% WGR, I used Zuckerberg’s quote.
The answer: assuming constant AND exponential growth (not really realistic but hey, who’s keeping track) in the first week of August 2009, Facebook will surpass MySpace in usership. No, I haven’t been drinking yet when I actually juxtpoase constant AND exponential growth, and what I mean by it is simple: Facebook and MySpace are social networks, highly viral, so growth is not linear. The constant part is 3% per week, but the exponential refers to the base, daily additional user signups growing by the constant growth rate. I know, it’s highly unconventional, but when you consider that MySpace tripled in 2 years without much of News Corp.’s push and Facebook doubled in five month, it’s not impossible either.
Here are each firm’s tables:
Yes, we’re kidding. I think.
FACEBOOK’S GROWTH
MYSPACE’S GROWTH
All right, henceforth, no more Facebook, I’m going into Facebook detox, for at least 24 hours. To keep you entertained:
Related:
- Facebook 100M users, a matter of when, not if.
- Facebook OS: Be careful what you ask for.
- Facebook: IPO vs. M&A.
- Facebook’s 2008 to do list: File for an IPO.
- Should MSFT Turn its Attention to Facebook?
- Peter Thiel: Facebook is Worth $8B.
- Murdoch: “MySpace worth $6B”, if so, then break up FIM!
- Facebook to be worth $2.35B by 2010.
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June 11th, 2007 at 3:50 pm
[…] Aug. 2009: Facebook will be Larger than MySpace; Oct.2009: Will own Web — Froosh joins in on so many of the outlandish claims that he enjoys reading about. […]