Sometimes, the nicest things you can say about someone come across as awfully critical. I say that because this post actually is intended to give a lot of credit to both Jason Calacanis and Jimmy Wales, but a cynic would argue it strives to do the opposite.
This morning it occured to me that Jimmy Wales might have blown his opportunity for redemption, before he even had a chance. I’m hoping I’ll be proven wrong, but we’ll say.
The Background?
Last year, between Christmas and New Year’s, Wikipedia co-founder Jimmy Wales said that he was looking to rely on humans and open source technology to build a Google-killing search engine. That raised a lot of eyebrows, but it got a lot of people excited. Over the next few months, people rushed to join his army of developers in the attempt to develop an open-source search engine built by legions of programmers. That’s right, people signed up to a mailing list and got cracking. I always wondered: how many Google employees signed up to that list, too?
Frankly, from the get-go, it was a hazy objective with a murky action plan. To his credit, Wales had built one of the most successful social media properties in Wikipedia.org, the world’s largest free encyclopedia, relying on wiki software that allows everyone and anyone to make changes to a text.
Wikia = a for profit Wikipedia
When the plans were being conceived, people were confused as to Wikipedia.org’s role in the new startup, whose name, it was reported by Wikiasari, then Wikia Search. Wikia was the for-profit company Wales had set up to develop wiki-powered communities. By the looks of it today, the name of his search is Wikia Search, though we could be wrong and this could change.
All Quiet on the Inbox Front?
Sometime in February or March 2007, I was going to publish a cynical post wondering if all of the members on the mailist list had been kidnapped, because I went one whole day without getting an email. At its peak, subscribers would get bombarded with 20-30 emails per day with everyone chiming in on everything you can imagine. It would start off with someone introducing themselves, why they wanted to collaborate and what they saw as a problem with the current search landscape. It was information overload but a great social experiment. Things have settled down now, but you still get the odd flurry of emails, usually when there is something in the news that touches on the project.
Enter a New Incumbent
In all honestly, this mailing list information overload phenomenon led me to realize why Google was successful: there were only two guys early on. It was easy to get things done. Ultimately, I thought, Wikia Search’s biggest drawback was its greatest strength. The wisdom of the crowds theory was making it unlikely for anything to get done, at least on the surface.
Over the subsequent months, web entrepreneur Jason Calacanis - who had founded and ran Silicon Alley Reporter in the late 1990s and sold his second startup Weblogs Inc. to AOL for $25M - encouraged Wales to embrace advertising on Wikipedia. That prompted me to publish “What would Wikipedia.org be worth as a for-profit,” which got a lot of people excited about the commercial upside of Wikipedia.org. Calacanis was one of them.
What If…
But, because Wikipedia.org had launched as a non-profit, it had to remain as such, and Wales to this say maintains, quite honorably and candidly, that launching Wikipedia.org as a non-profit was his best and / or worst decision ever. No doubt, Wikipedia.org would have maybe not become as big had it been a for-profit, but then seeing socially-edited content sites like Digg and YouTube explode run counter to that assertion… what if Wikipedia.org had been a for-profit all along?
With that thought in the back of Wales’ mind, he sought out to start a new company, one that was structured outside of Wikipedia.org, but built on a lot of the tangible and intangible tenets thereof, that would become his brass ring.
Man’s Hubris: Search
And in order not to try to re-invent the wheel - though technically he was doing that too, with Wikia - Wales decided to tackle search. I’ve long stated that search is the hubris of the Web entrepreneur.
Why, I thought, would someone with Wales’ mythical stature risk it all to lose to Google in search? And lose badly?
By way of disclosure: I should state that I too developed a search engine, called MetaMojo.com, but I did so out of a personal interest as a hobby, and because it was something that would not violate my employment and non-competition agreement. Today, I spend a good amount of my time and energy on search, but the bulk of it goes to video, a far more nascent field when we’ve already developed a leadership position.
After all, search, while still a somewhat new sector of the overall communications and commercial economy is a more mature space. Oh, there’s also a massive player in the room called Google that has gone from $0 to a market cap of $160B in less than ten years, which last year generated $10B in revenues, over $3 billion in profits and could at current growth rates surpass Microsoft in market valuation by 2010, maybe at least.
Enter the Naysayers
Wales was not only ridiculed by many for attempting to create a Google-killer out of thin air, but he also has been criticized in the past six months for what comes across as inaction. As the mailing list at Wikia Search expands every day, people become impatient and Wales himself has frequently stated that “you can’t build a search engine like his overnight.”
To his credit, he recently hired Jabber founder Jeremie Miller to spearhead the project. I say this to emphasize: no doubt Wikia Search is making a lot of inroads and advancing, and there’s plenty of time left in search, but clearly, others are not standing still.
Thank You for nothing!
Of course, as excitement and innocence surrounding that mailing list gave way to cynicism and frustration, others have not sat still. Today’s New York Times article on search and the human touch should have technically talked mainly about Wales’ project, be it Wikpedia or Wikia Search. But instead, it does not, it touched on Jason Calacanis’ Mahalo. And not too long after someone in that same venerable mailing list sent the article around, another subscriber asked:
I am not sure if something similar like Mahalo (e.g.
http://www.mahalo.com/Java) was considered by Wikia.
It seems to me that their way of providing search results is closely
related to the idea of a public Wiki.
I wonder what the reactions of both Calacanis and Wales were after that email was opened. Surely, Calacanis must have grinned when he clicked and opened that message, and Wales must have been somewhat miffed, for Calacanis is surely combining a lot of the elements of Wikipedia into his new project, Mahalo. I’m not saying that Calacanis borrowed from Wikipedia, though the use of wiki software, the human-compiled database etc., are all signature tactics of Wikipedia.org, though clearly by way of its open source status, not proprietary to it.
What Could Have Been?
It should also be stated, that had Wales long ago encouraged Wikipedia editors to add the most relevant and pertinent links for each topic, it would already have a human-compiled search engine directory consisting of millions upon millions of web sites. Of course the same things that plagued Yahoo! Directory, Looksmart, DMOZ and that will plague Mahalo would threaten it, but as it stands now, you can’t help but think that Calacanis pulled a Digg/Netscape 2 by borrowing heavily from Wales’ baby and applying to search at Mahalo.com. In no shape, form or fashion does this imply that they two are directly competing etc., but when I opened that email this morning (yes, I’m on the list) my reaction was: “Wales must not be smiling.”
Heavy Backers
While Wales was able to secure funding from the likes of Amazon.com and raised $3.5M for his search project, Mahalo raised a massive $16M on a valuation on $100M. That is an insane amount of money for a startup that many will ridicule as Looksmart or Squidoo, or even Chacha, all companies with many obstacles in the marketplace and no real strategy to be relevant.
In Search, Distribution is Everything
After all, the key consideration in search is not the quality of the algorithm, size of the index etc., but rather the distribution thereof.
While Wales had been openly talking about his new search engine since Christmas in a mailing list, Calacanis was coy. It was only recently that Valleywag eerily accurately described Calacanis’ project that the details came to light. Shortly thereafter, Calacanis unveiled Mahalo.com and the naysayers outnumbered the believers quite a bit.
I’m still not sure of how relevant Mahalo.com or Wikia Search will be, frankly. I do think however, that by having secured Sequoia as a backer, Calacanis has managed to ensure his company’s exit before Wales even hits the entrance.
Of course, if distribution is king in search, then Wales cannot be written off, since adding Wikia Search (whenever it launches) across the sprawling Wikipedia.org site would overnight create a winner out of his project, too.
The lesson, I suppose, is that online advertising is only starting to come to fruition so even the laggards in the space might have better prospects than the winners of many of the new segments of online commerce and communications that many are getting over-excited about.
Subscribe: