If I wasn’t happily married, I’d ask Liz Gannes to marry me. The NewTeeVee reporter points to a Forrester report - the most bullish ever, by far - that US video ads will hit $7.1B by 2012. Obviously, this must be true. As we have done over the years, we’re updating our “video ad market tale of the tape accordingly:
An estimate of the US online video ad market for 2009 - set in 2004: $657 million | Source.
An estimate of the US online video ad market for 2009 - set in 2005: $1.5 billion | Source.
An estimate of the US online video ad market for 2010 - set in 2006: $2.3 billion | Source.
An estimate of the US online video ad market for 2010 - set in late 2006: $3 billion | Source.
An estimate of the US online video ad market for 2011 - set in late 2007: $4.3 billion | Source.
An estimate of the worldwide online video ad market for 2011 - set in 2007: $10 billion | Source.
An estimate of the US online video ad market for 2012 - set in 2007: $7.1 billion | Source.
Here’s the graph, so it must be true:
No comment. Actually, as bullish as that sounds, look at the historical, actual growth in search ads:
By the way, my crazy post that web ads will surpass TV ads by 2021 isn’t so crazy now, is it? Let’s admit that such projections are self-serving, notwithstanding that, if search ads will be over $16B by 2012 and web video ads will be over $7.1B by 2012, right there, you are at $23B… my projections done earlier this year put 2012 ad revenues online at $36B. So figure search + video = $23B, that means classifieds, display/banners, sponsorships need to weigh in at $14B to make the numbers hold up. And, if we’re right about 2012, can we be that far off for our 2021 projection?
Not so crazy, heh?
And, here are some related posts:
- will video surpass search ads?
- why online video is a $150B market cap opportunity, but not for old media.
- understanding old media (read TV’s) envy.
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