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	<title>HipMojo.com</title>
	<link>http://watchmojo.com/web/blog</link>
	<description>Covering Online Video, Web, Search, Investing, Technology, Strategy, Investing, M&#038;A, Financing, VCs</description>
	<pubDate>Sun, 22 Nov 2009 13:53:08 +0000</pubDate>
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		<title>Bubble 2.0: 2003-2008?</title>
		<link>http://watchmojo.com/web/blog/index.php/2008/02/05/bubble-20-2003-2008/</link>
		<comments>http://watchmojo.com/web/blog/index.php/2008/02/05/bubble-20-2003-2008/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 06 Feb 2008 01:44:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Ashkan Karbasfrooshan</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Internet &#038; Web]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Video]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[M&#038;A]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Social Networking]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Management]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Investing]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Google]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[News Corp./FIM]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Yahoo!]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Facebook.com]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[MySpace]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Online Advertising]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[IPOs]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Crazy]]></category>
<category>Crazy</category><category>Facebook.com</category><category>Google</category><category>Internet &amp;#038; Web</category><category>Investing</category><category>IPOs</category><category>M&amp;#038;A</category><category>Management</category><category>MySpace</category><category>News Corp./FIM</category><category>Online Advertising</category><category>Social Networking</category><category>Video</category><category>Yahoo!</category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://watchmojo.com/web/blog/index.php/2008/02/05/bubble-20-2003-2008/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Dare we say it?  If 1995-99 marks the period known as the dot com bubble - or Bubble 1.0 - can we say that 2004-08 is Bubble 2.0?
We all agree that the bubble burst with the Nasdaq crashing from its March 2000 high.  We all also agree that the nuclear winter of 2001-03 [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Dare we say it?  If 1995-99 marks the period known as the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dot-com_bubble" target="_blank">dot com bubble</a> - or Bubble 1.0 - can we say that 2004-08 is Bubble 2.0?</p>
<p>We all agree that the bubble burst with the Nasdaq crashing from its March 2000 high.  We all also agree that the nuclear winter of 2001-03 was a great period in hindsight.  Tough, but great.  In fact, most of the best all time M&amp;A deals and financing deals of all time were done then.</p>
<p>But after that period we saw a return to the buoyant ways.  I think we can all agree that when News Corp. bought MySpace&#8217;s parent for $580M, many people said: &#8220;oh-oh, here we go again.&#8221;</p>
<p>Ironically, much like some of the initial dot com plays were actually worth the hype (Yahoo!, Netscape, Amazon, eBay) and followed by wannabe&#8217;s (Webvan, Pets.com, etc.) I would argue that the companies that launched Bubble 2.0 were definitely worthy of the hype (Skype, MySpace, etc.) who were in turn following up with wannabe&#8217;s (pick &#8216;em).</p>
<p>But I&#8217;d be lying to you if I said 2008 hasn&#8217;t burst the bubble.  It has.  Look all around you.</p>
<p>All of a sudden we care about the fact that social networks are horrible at generating revenue.  Too bad VCs wasted a boatload of investors&#8217; money in many of these ill-fated toilets passing off as business plans.</p>
<p>In 2006 and 2007, I argued that we were not in a bubble, rather, we were seeing <a href="http://watchmojo.com/web/blog/index.php/2007/06/13/has-the-bubble-pocket-moved-from-video-sharing-sites-to-video-ad-networks/" target="_blank">pockets of bubbles</a>.  Moreover, since these valuations were not driven by public shareholders, I argued that the outcome would not be so negative.  Furthermore, since the very mention of a bubble implies that we&#8217;re unaware of it being a bubble, I argued that we&#8217;re probably not in a bubble.</p>
<p>This did not mean that we were not living in and seeing bubble tendencies.  The endless barrage of MySpace clones and social network drones suggested that something was off.  YouTube&#8217;s $1.65B acquisition - 3x MySpace&#8217;s exit - followed the next year with a gargantuan $15B paper valuation for Facebook&#8230; coinciding with eBay&#8217;s writedown of its eBay investment (whose founders went on to inflate the bubble further with a $45M round for the yet-to-be-proven Joost) suggested that we were definitely in a 2000 mindset.</p>
<p>Then 2007 hit: the excess of loose money made the housing market crash.  That knocked off the financing sector which was a guilty accomplice of the housing bubble&#8230; and with the financial market squeeze out went the easy money of private capital that funded startups, buyouts, and what not.</p>
<p>Incidentally, much like we saw one last whimper of excess in late 2000&#8230; 2008 brought a crazy deal too: Slide raising $50M on a $500M pre-money deal, that some tried to pass off as &#8220;prescient&#8221; was, let&#8217;s face it, lunacy.</p>
<p>Undeterred, many continued to argue that Google and Yahoo! were there to buy out startups (and as such, &#8220;this time it was different&#8221;), no matter how lame the model of the acquired company.</p>
<p>But as we ushered 2008, all of a sudden, Google&#8217;s trio at the top have lost $15B of their value as Google tumbled from $747/share to $495/share.</p>
<p>And, what to make of Yahoo! - the poster boy for Bubble 1.0 - who is about to become <a href="http://www.economist.com/daily/columns/businessview/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10636325" target="_blank">acquired</a> by Microsoft for a fraction of its Bubble-era price.</p>
<p>Because of the above-mentioned reasons, the landing is soft for tech companies and new media businesses (unlike the housing market, basically, where foreclosures and bankruptcies have soared).</p>
<p>But if you look around, we&#8217;re starting to see some common sense: yesterday Rupert Murdoch confirmed once and for all that Wall Street Journal will remain paid-for, because, well, he&#8217;s not crazy.  He also confirmed that MySpace was making money because he had positioned it as a media company and locked in revenues from others.</p>
<p>Lastly, he nixed the idea that he would get into a crazy bidding war for either Yahoo! or AOL because he saw someone else do so.</p>
<p><strong>Obviously, the bigger picture remains as healthy as ever</strong>.  Online advertising is not a gimmick.  Online ads will surpass TV advertising, yes.  The world has gone digital and I bet that traditional media companies are far more doomed than most new media companies.  But even on the new media front: all is not well.  CNET, Yahoo! and IAC are all facing shareholder revolts.  Meanwhile, old stalwarts like NYT are in the same boat.  Yahoo! is being taken over in a hostile bid by MSFT.</p>
<p>Despite the fact that the big picture remains great, the short term landscape has changed: something tells me that 2008 is the equivalent of the 2001-03 era where some of the appetite for nutty decisions will be sucked out of the market.</p>
<p>I suspect that the cycle has shrunk, so within months we&#8217;ll get out of this because even though the macro reality will affect advertising, net-net, it&#8217;s a plus for digital advertising and interactive marketing.</p>
<p>But, the fact remains: all I can say is THANK YOU GOOD GOD.</p>
<p>From 2001-03, I put my head down and played my part to build an actual business, one who returned 27x the invested capital by 2005.  In many ways, I welcome this injection of common sense.</p>
<p>Hopefully cooler heads - and common sense - will prevail.</p>
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