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	<title>HipMojo.com</title>
	<link>http://watchmojo.com/web/blog</link>
	<description>Covering Online Video, Web, Search, Investing, Technology, Strategy, Investing, M&#038;A, Financing, VCs</description>
	<pubDate>Sun, 22 Nov 2009 13:53:08 +0000</pubDate>
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		<title>YHOO: Lots of Foreplay, Little Action = Nothing Changes</title>
		<link>http://watchmojo.com/web/blog/index.php/2008/04/22/yhoo-lots-of-foreplay-little-action-nothing-changes/</link>
		<comments>http://watchmojo.com/web/blog/index.php/2008/04/22/yhoo-lots-of-foreplay-little-action-nothing-changes/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 22 Apr 2008 20:39:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Ashkan Karbasfrooshan</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Yahoo!]]></category>
<category>Yahoo!</category>
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		<description><![CDATA[With the industry growing at over 20%, Yahoo! tried to put its best face forward, bullishly hawking a 9% year-over-year growth rate in revenues.
On the income statement:
- Revenues were $1,818 million for the first quarter of 2008, a 9          percent increase compared to $1,672 million for [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>With the industry growing at over 20%, Yahoo! tried to put its best face forward, bullishly <a href="http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/080422/20080422006596.html?.v=1" target="_blank">hawking</a> a 9% year-over-year growth rate in revenues.</p>
<p><u>On the income statement:</u></p>
<p>- Revenues were $1,818 million for the first quarter of 2008, a 9          percent increase compared to $1,672 million for the same period of          2007.</p>
<p>-          Revenues excluding traffic acquisition costs (&#8221;TAC&#8221;) were $1,352          million for the first quarter of 2008, a 14 percent increase compared          to $1,183 million for the same period of 2007.</p>
<p><strong>Translation: dollar-for-dollar, it cost a bit more for YHOO to generate those revenues&#8230; and this I suspect is due to the fact that it acquired Blue Lithium and Right Media, two big ad networks to pay out a good chunk of the revenue they collect.</strong></p>
<p>- Gross profit for the first quarter of 2008 was $1,063 million, an 11          percent increase compared to $958 million for the same period of 2007.</p>
<p>- Operating income for the first quarter of 2008 was $121 million, a 28          percent decrease compared to $169 million for the same period of 2007.</p>
<p><strong>Translation: As we&#8217;ve long said, this company is bloated and needs to reduce layers of management, since labor costs are usually the lion&#8217;s share of overhead&#8230; R&amp;D costs are usually major sources of costs, too&#8230; and we all know that after wasting billions, YHOO is looking at getting close to Google with regards to outsourcing search, or merging its R&amp;D with MSFT once MSFT acquires them.</strong></p>
<p>United States segment revenues for the first quarter of 2008 were          $1,307 million, a 19 percent increase compared to $1,101 million for          the same period of 2007.</p>
<p>International segment revenues for the first quarter of 2008 were $510          million, an 11 percent decrease compared to $571 million for the same          period of 2007.</p>
<p><strong>Translation: This is not good.  Many growth opportunities internationally, which combined with a weaker USD is just bad news.  All in all, the fact that international decreased shows how weak YHOO is doing in Europe, for example&#8230; yet all of this is ironic because YHOO has been pushing its Asian properties as a reason to get more from MSFT.  On the positive side, Google is already at 51%&#8230; so this suggests YHOO has upside in global operations.  Will they execute?  What do you think?</strong></p>
<p><u><strong>On Guidance:</strong></u></p>
<p>Thankfully, YHOO upped guidance but not by all that much and frankly, YHOO would right about now sell its mother for a nickel if it means getting a few pennies more from MSFT, after all, there is NO way YHOO remains independent come Q3, let alone Q4 2008.</p>
<p><u>On the balance sheet:</u></p>
<blockquote><p>Cash,        cash equivalents, and investments in marketable debt securities were        $2,848 million at March 31, 2008 as compared to $2,363 million at        December 31, 2007, an increase of $485 million.</p></blockquote>
<p>This remains too little for YHOO to compete effectively for M&amp;A.</p>
<p><u><strong>Bottom Line:</strong></u></p>
<p>- I fail to see how this changes much: MSFT is offering more for YHOO than YHOO is able to command from the Street or from other buyers.  In fact, one of the main &#8220;white knights&#8221; (News Corp.) is now aligned on MSFT&#8217;s side.  We explained why here.</p>
<p>- Moreover, I was even expecting a 10% likelihood of them announcing a merger with AOL with Google taking over search and guaranteeing an obscene revenue deal.  None of that&#8230;</p>
<p>- Initially I thought MSFT would pay $50B&#8230; which would have been roughly $34-35, but the way senior brass has mismanaged this entire debacle, I think MSFT is celebrating over at Redmond.</p>
<p><strong>Here&#8217;s what will go down:</strong></p>
<p>Step 1: One last attempt between now and Friday to do this cordially.  MSFT will whisper that they won&#8217;t go higher than $33&#8230; that would be about $46.2B.</p>
<p><strong>If they get rebuffed&#8230; </strong></p>
<p>Step 2: then MSFT will go hostile and this will get drawn out into the dog days of summer with a $31 offer finally being accepted during a formal legal tender.</p>
<p>And really, that is if and only if YHOO stops acting so dishonorably and cease to waste shareholder&#8217;s time and value (ie. stop it with the deals with Google, or the excessive severance packages).</p>
<p>Note: I&#8217;ve sold the vast majority of my holdings because none of this is based on rationality anymore.  It is all emotional and going to get uglier before it gets better.  And&#8230; <a href="http://watchmojo.com/web/blog/index.php/2008/04/22/did-yahoo-manage-revenues-to-beat-q1-expectations/" target="_blank">I think YHOO might have played with figures, to boot</a>.</p>
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