Top 10 Most Shocking October Surprises

October 2022
Herschel Walker, who was the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia in 2022, first rose to prominence as an NFL running back. The political hopeful played for the Dallas Cowboys, Minnesota Vikings, Philadelphia Eagles, and New York Giants across 12 seasons. Just a few days had elapsed in October before the race’s “surprise” came to light: Walker, a married man who had taken a hardline anti-abortion stance, was reported to have pressured multiple women to have abortions. Walker’s son Christian, a conservative influencer, publicly criticized his father’s parenting on social media, which damaged Walker’s “family values”-focused image. The former NFL player lost the election to incumbent senator Raphael Warnock.

October 2000
Sometimes, an “October surprise” doesn’t happen in October at all! While, indeed, the term is usually reserved for newsworthy events that occur in the month of October, it can refer more broadly to such an event that happens immediately in the run-up to a presidential, midterm, or other election. For example, consider the quote-unquote “November surprise” that occurred mere days before the 2000 U.S. presidential election. Thomas J. Connelly, a Maine defense attorney and perennial political candidate, leaked that then-Governor Bush had been arrested in Maine for drunk driving in 1976. Bush confirmed the allegation almost immediately, but nevertheless went on to win the election.

October 2004
If either the Bush or Kerry campaigns thought they were out of the woods by the end of October, we sincerely hope that they weren’t holding their respective breaths. After weeks free of scandal, the 2004 October surprise finally dropped: a New York Times exposé revealed the disappearance of explosives from an Iraqi warehouse. While the Kerry campaign was quick to accuse President Bush’s administration of bungling the weapons’ safekeeping, Bush’s administration countered by claiming that the Times’ reporting was incorrect. The surprises weren’t finished yet: on October 29, two days after the Times article was published, Osama bin Laden released a video claiming responsibility for the September 11th, 2001 attacks.

October 2018
While the Trump administration was no stranger to scandals and intense public scrutiny, events leading up to the 2018 midterms were denounced even by some in right-wing media. This October surprise stemmed from caravans of Central American migrants aiming to seek asylum and refuge in the United States by crossing the Mexico-U.S. border. President Trump himself tweeted disinformation about the caravan which was then echoed by a number of prominent Fox News hosts… with one major exception. That would be Shep Smith, who suggested that Trump’s intention was to generate public fear and outcry to his party’s benefit.

October 2006
The war on terror, initiated by George W. Bush’s administration in response to the tragic events of 9/11, was a deeply unpopular endeavor, spurring massive anti-war rallies worldwide, as well as amongst the United States’ allies. It’s no surprise, then, that it played a large role in elections held under Bush’s presidency. Two studies published in the Lancet, a highly reputable medical journal, focused on casualties in Iraq — Les Roberts, the lead investigator in both, admitted that the timing was purposeful, but not partisan in nature. Around the same time, Republican Rep. Mark Foley’s inappropriate messages to underaged congressional pages were leaked. This may have been common knowledge amongst certain Democrats and Republicans, further eroding public trust in both major parties.

October 1992
President Ronald Reagan’s administration, despite widespread popularity, was haunted by the Iran-Contra scandal, in which the U.S. government illegally sold arms to Iran — despite the arms embargo against the country. While the scandal itself officially ended in 1986, the repercussions trickled down, eventually hurting the presidential campaign of George H.W. Bush, Reagan’s vice president during the scandal. Caspar Weinberger, Reagan’s Secretary of State, was indicted for his participation, which included facilitating the transfer of weapons and lying to the council charged with investigating the affair. While this occurred in June, a steady information leak revealed that incumbent President Bush had played a more significant role in the deal than anyone had thought, costing him the election in November.

October 2003
Plagued by a series of scandals and general voter unhappiness, California governor Gray Davis was the subject of a special recall election — a first for the state, and only the second gubernatorial recall election in American history. However, that wasn’t even the most surprising part: that would be the candidacy of one Arnold Schwarzenegger, who had long teased his political ambitions. Two stories served as “October surprises” in this case: one accused the actor of multiple allegations of misconduct, and another reported that he had once praised Adolf Hitler while promoting the documentary “Pumping Iron.” Schwarzenegger would go on to win the election and serve eight years as governor, ultimately retiring from politics to return to Hollywood.

October 2020
A recurring issue that nagged at President Trump’s reelection campaign were frequent calls — from both sides of the aisle — to release his tax returns. Eventually, this resulted in 2020’s October surprise, which was the New York Times reporting that Trump paid only $750 in taxes between 2016 and ‘17. Some weeks later, Forbes reported that the 45th president was over $1 billion in debt. In addition, Trump, along with First Lady Melania Trump, was revealed to have tested positive for COVID-19, possibly the result of a “super spreader” event — in this case, Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett’s induction ceremony. Trump ultimately lost the election to former vice president Biden.

October 2016
October 7, 2016 was an extremely fateful, extremely consequential day for both major U.S. political parties. On that day, the infamous “Access Hollywood” outtake clip was leaked, which unearthed audio of then-nominee Trump using highly offensive language to describe his advances on women. Political figures on all sides condemned the recording’s contents, with some even suggesting that Trump should step down as the Republican nominee. The Democrats were hardly free and clear: John Podesta, who chaired Clinton’s election campaign, was the victim of a data breach, which saw the contents of his email account leaked. The leaks were damaging to the Clinton campaign, and may have ultimately contributed to her loss to Trump.

October 1980
Remember when we outlined that we’d only be looking at “October surprises” that occurred after the term had been coined? Yeah, this is the mother of all “October surprises.” The 1980 U.S. presidential election occurred in the shadow of the Iran hostage crisis. Both Iran’s government and incumbent president Jimmy Carter — who was running for reelection — announced that the hostages would not be freed until after the election. The Reagan campaign feared that Carter would leverage the situation as a means of garnering votes — allegations persist to this day that they colluded with Iran to delay the hostages’ release. The allegations have never been proven, and two separate congressional investigations revealed no evidence of such a plot.

Which October surprise shocked you the most? Let us know in the comments!