] HipMojo.com » Video Ads to Surpass Search Ads by 2018

Video Ads to Surpass Search Ads by 2018

I’ve always said that in 5-10 years, video advertising will be greater than search.  A lot of people agree, those who don’t usually come around when they examine the facts.   I’ve written about this quite a bit:

- Will Video Ads Command a Larger Share of the Web Ad Market than Paid Search?

Anyway, yesterday I talked about the potential growth of video ads using the actual growth of search (to read that, click here: Search vs. Video - the Looming War).  For some reason, I did not go all the way and talk about how big video can get and when it will surpass search… so here are some projections to answer not if but when will video surpass search in terms of share of the online advertising pie?

For search, I am using eMarketer’s numbers until 2011 and then adding projections from 2012 to 2020.

For video, I averaged out eMarketer and Forrester’s numbers until 2010 and 2012 respectively, then added my own projections until 2020.  Take it with a grain of salt, but I’d say by the end of the next decade, online video will be larger than online search:

I know you are reading this and thinking I am crazy, which is always a plausible conclusion… but two things to consider:

- These are US figures only, but in the US, TV ads were $57B in 2005 and supposed to be $73B by 2009… so even if web video is - by 2009 - a $2.3B market, its video peer on TV will be about 30x larger… that means plenty of upside for online video ads at the expense of TV ads.

- I am usually conservative: earlier this year I published a post suggesting that online advertising would surpass TV advertising by 2021… that raised some eyebrows, but then, months later, other more trusted folks (ie. people paid to do this full time) did the same analysis not once but twice and were even more bullish than I was… so maybe video will surpass search in 5 and not 10 years.

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Posted By: Ashkan Karbasfrooshan | Dec 11th

4 Responses to “Video Ads to Surpass Search Ads by 2018”

  1. HipMojo.com » 2009: The Year in Online Advertising Says:
    December 23rd, 2008 at 2:10 pm

    […] is worth noting that eMarketer revised downwards the online video advertising estimate.  So in October and December of 2007, I projected that by 2018, video could surpass search.  Using the latest […]

  2. HipMojo.com » As Consumers Tuck Away Wallets, Paid Clicks Tumble Says:
    May 13th, 2009 at 3:13 pm

    […] and more, I think my prediction that online video revenues will cross search revenues by 2018 will become […]

  3. scott broomfield Says:
    May 18th, 2009 at 4:19 pm

    2018 is way out there. By 2012 there will probably be some new new thing that will change the game yet again. That said, we all know the video is up and to the right. It is nice to be in the upper right hand corner of any graph. Now, to be way up and sooner, one needs to prove engagement using video. So, and I am fully biased here, make the actionable by making it interactive and measure all the results. Think of the video as the a itself and think of its use the way you would think of creating landing pages. Iterate.

    Scott, CEO of Veeple

  4. HipMojo.com » Can the TV Business Avoid the Music Industry’s Fate? Says:
    May 28th, 2009 at 10:32 am

    […] compiled the experts’ projections and ran the numbers myself, it is highly possible that online video advertising will surpass search ads by 2018 as online ads altogether take over television advertisings by […]

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