Are We Surrounded By Alien Civilizations?

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Are We Surrounded by Alien Civilizations?</h4>

Are we alone in the universe? Or do we share space with something else? And are they closer than many would care to imagine?

In this video, we’ll explore multiple theories as to why we might be surrounded by other life and alien worlds - including an in depth look at the dark forest hypothesis, made famous by the “Three-Body Problem” novelist, Liu Cixin. And, at the end of the episode, we’ll count down ten UFO sightings that have happened on Earth that still haven’t been explained.

This is Unveiled, and today we’re answering the extraordinary question; are we surrounded by alien civilizations?

By some measures, we know our place in the universe. We live on Earth, in the solar system, in the Milky Way galaxy. We’re about 25,000 lightyears away from our galactic center, and our planet speeds around the sun at about 66,000 miles per hour. But, beyond all of that, we’re still trying to add detail to the rest of the cosmos… particularly when it comes to the question of whether we share it with other lifeforms, or not? 

Let’s get straight to it with reason number one; the commonality of life in the universe. When looking at instances of life, we, of course, have only one sample to draw upon - life on Earth. And there are plenty of studies and theories - including the rare Earth hypothesis - to suggest that maybe that’s all there is. But, equally, and in more recent times, we’ve seen more and more papers published arguing that life, actually, could be all around.

One such paper was published in May 2020 by the Columbia University astronomer David Kipping - with a key takeaway being that it’s potentially nine times more likely that life is common in the universe, than rare. The study models the likelihood of abiogenesis - of the emergence of life - on other planets as per what we know to have happened on Earth… and concludes that there’s good reason to believe that it would happen again, on another Earth-like world. For Kipping and his team, however, the likelihood of intelligent life isn’t as high, with close to a fifty-fifty chance. But, still, the suggestion is that if there are any alien species out there, then some of them will have developed into an advanced civilization.

So, what are the chances that they’re close by? Reason number two as to why we could be surrounded is the growing list of potentially Earth-like exoplanets. Exoplanets are planets outside of the solar system… and charting them is actually a relatively new prospect for astronomers, with the first official detection of an exoplanet coming as late as 1992. Meanwhile, the topmost predictions for how many there could be in the Milky Way claim that there are multiple billions of other worlds in just this galaxy. 

Of course, not all of those will be Earth-like. But according to a June 2020 paper by a team at the University of British Columbia, we can estimate that one in five sun-like stars does have an Earth-like planet in its habitable zone. Which amounts to around six billion celestial masses within the Milky Way that are something similar to our pale blue dot. If we then imagine that, first, life can exist somewhere other than Earth… and, again, reason that it’s nine times as likely that it’s common than not… we could estimate that something lives on at least 5.4 billion planets that aren’t our own. Then, if the chances of intelligent life really did turn out to be roughly fifty-fifty… we’re talking more than two billion alien civilizations.

What’s important to realize, though, is that this is still just one conclusion we could reach. It still stands that we haven’t discovered even one alien lifeform so far, intelligent or not. But a growing number of scientists and astronomers do argue that the galaxy really could be bursting with life, nonetheless. It’s just that we need to work out how to access it.

On to reason number three as to why we’re probably surrounded… time. We know that the Milky Way has been around for around 13.5 billion years. And we also know that it hasn’t always been the exact same cosmic mass as it is today. It has shifted and developed over time and, indeed, the evolution of our galaxy to this precise point is one of many key reasons why we can exist right here, right now. 

In the search for alien life, we so often speak of habitable zones. But we’re usually contemplating them as a physical space. As a band around a star wherein a life-supporting planet could orbit. Alongside all of that, though, there are temporal habitable zones. Moments in (and periods of) time when conditions align to create the best chances to form life. And the interesting thing is that, according to one study, the Milky Way’s optimum time for life was long ago, to the tune of five-and-a-half billion years back in cosmic history.

A December 2020 paper by CalTech calculated that the probability of life in the Milky Way peaked around eight billion years after it formed, and around 13,000 lightyears from the galactic center. Earth and the solar system are now almost double that, at around 25,000 lightyears away from the heart of the Milky Way… and five-and-a-half billion years further down the timeline. But, say there was a population boom at an earlier stage in our galaxy, then couldn’t we now expect there to be various, ancient civilizations dotted around us? And, if they’ve potentially been evolving for billions of years longer than life on Earth has, then could they potentially be far, far more advanced than we are? Again, there’s no way to know for sure until we encounter one… but the thought begins to make the whole of human history feel really quite small, alongside the potential for everything else!

But even though there has seemingly been time enough, there are potentially planets enough, and studies show that the likelihood is that alien life does exist somewhere… the disappointing reality remains that we still haven’t discovered anything. A growing number of scientists believe that there must be extraterrestrial intelligence in the universe, and probably in our galaxy, but nobody has found it. So, reason number four why we’re probably surrounded is because we’re not yet advanced enough to know what’s really going on.

Across the many ecosystems of Earth, humans reign supreme. We’ve built towns and cities across most of the world map, and we’ve traveled to almost all Earthly locations. And yet, our successes outside of Earth’s atmosphere are… limited. There’s no doubt that our space travel achievements thus far should be celebrated, but they still only amount to a small number of far-slower-than-lightspeed machines (only two of which - the Voyagers - have ever broken out into interstellar space) and a handful of human travelers making it to the next-closest thing to us, the moon. Our impact on the wider universe is, then, at this stage, very small.

The Great Filter is an often-debated concept whenever talk of advanced civilizations comes up. It proposes that there is something, at some stage of civilization development, that puts a halt to it all. There’s some kind of biological or technological hurdle that very few civilizations can pass, and that’s why space appears to us to be so… silent. The next question is: Has humankind already passed the Great Filter, or are we yet to encounter it? If that second scenario is true, then it could be that we’re just not at the required level to engage with alien civilizations, yet - and we might never be. Meanwhile, those select few alien groups who have passed the Filter, have steadily grown and grown all around us, despite us being naturally oblivious to them.

Finally, filter or no filter, it could simply be that we haven’t allowed ourselves enough of an opportunity yet, to encounter and understand any potential alien groups. In a joint-authored 2016 paper by Cornell University students Evan Solomonides and Yervant Terzian, it’s argued that we could be waiting 1,500 years before any real progress is made toward first contact with aliens. The study, entitled “A Probabilistic Analysis of the Fermi Paradox”, reminds us that we’ve only truly been searching in earnest for aliens for about a century… and also predicts that less than one percent of the Milky Way has been reached in any way, by anything. Which offers one explanation as to why we so far haven’t crossed paths with aliens, but also opens up the possibility that there could be plenty of them out there… it’s just so unlikely at this stage that we’ll have clocked them, or they’ll have clocked us.

So, there we have it. It can be argued that it’s statistically likely that aliens abound; it’s becoming clearer and clearer that there are enough exoplanets in the Milky Way to host them all; according to one recent study, there’s been comfortably enough time for them to have emerged in this galaxy; and the final explanation as to why we’ve not spotted them yet is because we’re not advanced or clever enough ourselves. Or we’re just too impatient! 

Where are all the aliens? It’s a question that humankind has seriously grappled with for decades, but we’ve yet to find a truly satisfying answer. Now, though, there’s a new approach in town. A new way of addressing the issue of those apparently absent extra-terrestrials. And it might just be the one that finally opens our eyes.

In fiction and often in real life, forests are seen as mysterious places. As shadowy and intimidating worlds, full of beauty but also fear and doubt… and sometimes monsters. There’s the mystical Old Forest in “The Lord of the Rings”, the aptly named Forbidden Forest in the “Harry Potter” books, and there are countless examples used in horror movies - such as in “The Blair Witch Project”, which is mostly set in the woods. It’s so often a case, then, of trees, trees everywhere, but still no place to hide.

The Dark Forest theory takes this idea and applies it to the universe as a whole. We’re not still talking trees here… but we are still thinking about vast, unknowable and potentially dangerous landscapes, this time stretching from star to star and planet to planet. The theory first appeared under its current guise in the 2008 novel, “The Dark Forest”, by the award-winning sci-fi writer, Liu Cixin. And it offers one solution to that most pressing of scientific predicaments: The Fermi Paradox.

The Fermi Paradox was first posed by the physicist, Enrico Fermi, in the 1950s. It highlights the contradiction between the number of alien civilizations we expect there to be in the universe, and the number we’ve actually found evidence of. Based on various estimates, we expect there to be thousands of alien species. But, based on various studies, we’ve found none of them. Zero. Not a single, otherworldly being, anywhere. So, what gives? Well, according to the Dark Forest theory, fear gives. And caution is the key. And whenever any advanced enough civilization moves through space, it does so slowly. And it’s ready to defend itself at a moment’s notice. 

Imagine, again, that you find yourself traveling through an unknown stretch of woodland. Imagine, if you like, that you’re a Hobbit walking past trees that legend says might be enchanted. You might feel exposed? Or apprehensive? Or ready to turn back around and head in the opposite direction. The Dark Forest theory suggests that this is similar to how intelligent enough extra-terrestrials feel, too. And that’s why we’ve never heard or seen anything from them… because they simply don’t want to make themselves known. They tread super carefully through space, shuffling through the leaves and branches of the cosmos, hoping never to attract the attention of anything else.

In many ways, it goes against most stereotypical science fiction. The Hollywood storylines usually involve aliens that aren’t exactly shy to reveal themselves. They come, they see, they capture and destroy everything in their path. But is an all-guns-blazing mothership really the best way to go about conquering galaxies? Wouldn’t the lights and sounds and signatures of something like that actually render you a sitting duck to anybody else looking in? The Dark Forest theory says that any alien civilization seriously hoping to survive doesn’t want to be quite so… loud.

But that doesn’t mean that the Dark Forest is safe. It certainly isn’t. Mostly because of that other key aspect to it: Survival. Survival at all costs. To exist in this universe, any alien civilization has to be prepared and able to swiftly eliminate any other civilization that they encounter. It’s kill or be killed, in this particular version of the cosmos. So, while a Dark Forest civilization tries its best to avoid detection first of all, it’s also ruthless. And it presumably carries instant, existence ending superweapons, too. Which, when you think about it, is a pretty frightening prospect... It means that any alien civilization that’s clever enough to succeed in the Dark Forest a) is invisible, and b) could kill us all at any time. Any time like now. Or now. Or… now.

Hopefully we’re all at least still here for this next part of this video, though. Because what does this all mean for humans and life on Earth? And should we more seriously consider the Dark Forest theory, as we move forward with space travel?

For some, we really should. In the twenty-first century, Earth is a noisier planet than ever before. For any alien species that’s passing through the Milky Way, this green and blue marble, this world that’s three worlds away from the sun and in the habitable zone, is emitting various signals to let everyone know that we’re here. That we exist. So, why not drop by to visit sometime, and annihilate us all while you’re at it? Sure, that’s a somewhat irrational and inflated conclusion to reach… but it is true that we are making ourselves more and more noticeable.

First off, to some degree, there’s the oxygen. Earth’s oxygen levels are high, and continually refilled by all the plant life that covers our planet. Should an alien civilization ever clock our particular atmospheric setup, then, they could quickly realize that the chances of life existing on this rock are good. As a result, they might decide to take a closer look… at which point they’d find further, even stronger evidence that we’re here. We’re now talking radio signals.

Over the last one hundred years or so, Earth has been beaming radio signals across its own surface, but also out into space. As our technology has advanced, so too has the size of our cosmic footprint… with scientists calculating that our earliest radio signals are now detectable literally hundreds of trillions of miles away from us. A few hundred trillion miles actually isn’t especially far in the grand scheme of the entire universe, but those distances are always growing… and the whispers of our existence are reaching further and further out.

There’s also the physical evidence that a sufficiently advanced alien civilization might spot. One scenario is that, somewhere out there, there’s an ultra-ultra-powerful telescope, zooming into our towns and cities, and even into our homes. The idea being that even our buildings and roads could give us away, if anything is watching closely enough. Failing that, there’s the growing fleet of satellites that now circle our planet. Or there are specific, targeted space missions that we’ve set off… like the Voyager probes, which famously carry Golden Records containing various pieces of information for any alien species that might discover them.

For aliens conforming to the Dark Forest universe, all of this information - all of these signs and signals - are priceless because they allow them to safely watch us from a distance, without risking revealing their own selves. They remain hidden in the forest. They can proceed with caution, a key aspect to the Dark Forest theory, and they need only decide what to do with us if we ever get too close to discovering them. So, if they really are intent on quickly destroying any civilization which poses a potential threat, it’s really better to hope that we never discover alien life. Because if we do, we’re dead.

But let’s finish with a slightly less gloomy outlook. Because it’s not as though the Dark Forest theory is definitely correct, and there are plenty who go against it. Perhaps the strongest counterargument is that it doesn’t allow for much by way of co-operation. In the Dark Forest universe, every single hypothesized alien species is solely out for itself, and is hell bent on removing everything else from its path. But… for that society to have become advanced enough to even attempt interstellar missions at all, it’s a good bet that first it will have had to have learnt the value of co-operation within itself. So, why wouldn’t it prefer to at least try to peacefully communicate with another species, rather than just blasting it away by default?

Perhaps the strangest thing is that the Dark Forest theory doesn’t allow much time at all for first contact. It does provide one solution to the Fermi Paradox, and it implies that there could be countless alien civilizations out there… it’s just that they’re all tentatively hiding away from each other, biding their time for the best moment to strike. But, when it comes to actually crossing paths with and recognising extraterrestrial species, the suggestion is that it would all be over before it had even begun.

It’s an idea which forces us to consider our own position and impact on the universe around us. Should we, the citizens of Earth, take more notice of the Dark Forest theory? Or could it be that we’ve already been spotted by some far-off group, and we’re doomed anyway… so, in the meantime, why worry? Or is there yet another, better solution to the Fermi Paradox… one that doesn’t require quite so much existential paranoia?

This is Unveiled and today we’ll be counting down our picks for the top 10 UFO incidents that have still to be explained.

#10: The Mt. Rainier UFO Sighting

This sighting, also called the “Kenneth Arnold UFO Sighting”, is the one that gave us the phrase “flying saucer”. Kenneth Arnold, a pilot, was flying near Mount Rainier in Washington state in 1947 when he encountered a series of unusual, flashing lights. He then spotted multiple flying objects shimmering as if they were made out of mirrors. He followed the objects for a while until they eventually flew away from him, much faster than his plane. When papers reported on it, the name “flying saucer” was coined to describe what he saw, and the military eventually investigated. But with no evidence other than Arnold’s own testimony, we might never know what the objects were.

#9: The New Jersey Turnpike

People stopped their cars to get a better look at a V-shaped UFO that was spotted over the New Jersey Turnpike in 2001. These lights were supposed to be gold and appeared at night, and were even seen by local cops AND filmed. They were compared extensively to the similar V-shaped UFO formation seen in Arizona in 1997, the so-called “Phoenix Lights”, and again some people thought military flares were responsible. Decades on, and we still don’t know what they were. Maybe another military exercise WAS to blame, but when similar formations of lights in the sky keep appearing, perhaps something more is going on.

#8: The Hill Abduction

The most famous alien abduction case of all time, the abduction of Barney and Betty Hill established many of the hallmark characteristics of the alien abduction myth. The Hills were driving through New Hampshire in 1961 when they saw a flying saucer following them. Eventually, the saucer landed, and they approached to investigate, seeing “humanoid figures” within. They then returned home with missing time and missing memories. Betty started to regain her memories through dreams and came to believe that she and her husband had been abducted by aliens and experimented on, though the aliens were friendly. She said they came from Zeta Reticuli. To this day it’s not clear what actually happened to the Hills that night.

#7: Aurora UFO Incident

This alien encounter is often taken to be a bit of local color down in Texas, but it’s still not clear where the strange story came from or what happened. In 1897, newspapers reported that a UFO had crashed near a farm and had been carrying an alien astronaut. The alien died in the crash and was, allegedly, buried in the town’s cemetery. It’s plausible that the entire story was fabricated and to great effect, since it remains a popular, if absurd, legend in the area. But they do say that there’s a kernel of truth in every story, and maybe a spaceman DID crash down in the Old West.

#6: Half-Time

This UFO sighting was experienced by countless people, all watching a friendly soccer game in Florence, Italy, in 1954. As the story goes, the match had to be stopped partway through because a large number of UFOs appeared in the sky. Thousands of people were witnesses, and they variously described an object that looked like an “egg” or “cigar”, but it was brilliant white and left a strange residue behind when it departed. Scientists believe the entire object was a unique weather phenomenon involving spiderwebs getting pulled into the atmosphere, which would also explain the residue, but it was over too quickly to be studied in detail.

#5: Westall UFO

Now onto Australia, this famous sighting happened in 1966 and also boasts a great many witnesses. In Melbourne, a group of schoolchildren and their teacher all saw a flying saucer fly over the top of their school one morning, supposedly being chased by airplanes. The Royal Australian Air Force had no records of any such event – at least, none that have ever been made public – but to be seen by so many people, it’s definitely worth further study. Some have blamed a weather balloon for the sighting, as they often do, but even sixty years on and nobody really knows what happened or what the UFO was.

#4: Flatwoods Monster

Part UFO encounter and part cryptid, the Flatwoods Monster is today a staple of West Virginia folklore. Supposedly, in 1952, a bright object flew across the sky and crashed down to Earth. Some people went to investigate and eventually came across an alien figure, perhaps 10 feet tall, that “glided” across the ground and created a foul smell that left them unwell. Usually, people blame a large barn owl for the sighting thanks to the detailed description, but no owl is 10 feet tall. Owls also don’t leave burn marks on the ground or crash to Earth on comets.

#3: Mothman

Another incident that toes the line between a fantastical monster and an extra-terrestrial, and which also took place in West Virginia, were the sightings of Mothman in 1966 and 1967. Alien or not, this mysterious creature WAS an unidentified flying object in the truest sense, spotted by numerous people. The sightings culminated with the 1967 Silver Bridge collapse in which 46 people lost their lives. Some blame Mothman for this, or believe he was providing a warning, but it’s still not clear what those actual sightings were. Maybe it was a large bird of some kind – a crane is usually mentioned – or maybe he was something not-of-this-world.

#2: Phantom Airships

Again, we have UFO sightings that pre-date the Second World War, which is unusual. This bizarre craze of sightings happened in the 1890s, as members of the public began to see “mystery airships” in the sky. This was still a few years before the first successful airplane, where the only ways to fly were in airships or balloons, so it makes sense that people would see a UFO and determine it must be some kind of airship. The panic then re-emerged fifteen years later, just before World War I. Some believe the whole thing was made up to sell newspapers, while others point to it as proof that aliens have been on Earth for centuries.  

#1: The Invasion of Washington

In 1952, America was under attack. The capital city, Washington D.C., was besieged by unexplained aircraft, visible to both the naked eye and to radar equipment. Even the most experienced airmen and aviation workers saw bright lights and strange objects, including one described as a “ball of fire”. It was so alarming that the CIA investigated, setting up the Robertson Panel under the President’s orders because they thought the event represented a threat to national security. It remains such a unique encounter because it lasted for multiple days and had so many witnesses, and it might be the UFO encounter the US government has taken most seriously of all.

So, what do you think? Could we be surrounded by alien civilizations? By some measures, the chances may be high. It’s statistically likely that aliens exist in high numbers; there are easily enough worlds in the universe to host them; and there’s surely been enough time since the big bang for them to emerge. 

On top of all of the above, there’s the ever more popular dark forest theory to consider, which suggests that the only reason we haven’t met aliens yet… is because the smartest ones are keeping well hidden. And, finally, there’s the long (and always growing) list of bizarre experiences on Earth that seemingly point to otherworldly beings.

Do aliens exist? Do they know about Earth? Will our paths ever cross? Is it safe if they do? These are constant questions as we peer out into space, forever searching for someone else who’s looking back… searching for us.