Could the Civil War Movie Actually Happen?

Could-the-Movie-Civil-War-Ever-Actually-Happen

Welcome to WatchMojo, and today we’re discussing the Alex Garland/A24 film “Civil War.” In these ever-more-divided times, could a similar series of events actually take place in the United States of America?

This is a hot-button political topic - especially as 2024 is an election year - so we ask that you let us know your thoughts (respectfully) in the comments below.

Prior to its wide release, “Civil War” quickly became a smash hit with critics. In an era where the partisan divide is seemingly deeper than it has been in decades, the film examines the plight of those trapped between warring factions. Light on exposition, Garland chooses to instead focus on the conflict midstream. Here is what we do know about the state of play in Alex Garland’s Disunited States:

The country is embroiled in a rapidly escalating war between the federal government and separatist factions. Texas and California - the two most populous states in the union - have split off together to form the Western Forces. Meanwhile, Florida and some neighboring states have joined the “Florida Alliance.” The specific aims and beliefs of these groups are left deliberately ambiguous.

All we know for sure is that they are all at odds with Nick Offerman, a dictatorial President of the United States. In his third term, this president seemingly spends his days recreating the ‘this is fine’ meme in nationally televised addresses. Domestic terrorism and fear have spread everywhere.

Could this happen in real life? To answer that, we need to examine both the structures of the U.S. government and the partisan makeup of America.

First, would a modern-day civil war resemble Alex Garland’s apocalyptic vision? The short answer is both yes and no. Let’s start with Nick Offerman’s president with total power, who appears to have precipitated this deadly rift. No president since Franklin Delano Roosevelt has served more than two terms. That’s thanks to the 22nd Amendment to the Constitution, passed in 1951, officially setting a term limit on America’s highest office. Overturning it legally would require either a Constitutional Convention or passage of a new Amendment. While certainly possible, both are long, drawn out processes requiring a level of debate and deliberation that could easily kill such an effort in its infancy.

That means, if a would-be-dictator president wanted to remain in power illegally, they’d need to resort to violence. America received its first taste of such an event on January 6th, 2021. The supporters of then-President Donald Trump attempted to disrupt the certification of the election results by storming the U.S. Capitol. The former president himself was later indicted for his alleged role in the insurrection. Notably, he had to rely on the actions of private citizens for his alleged attempted coup. The organs of government were not at his disposal at the time, though it wasn’t for lack of trying.

Claiming that the election had been rigged, Trump had led a campaign to overturn the results and reinstall himself as President. This included pressuring state and federal officials, including the Department of Justice, and filing over 60 lawsuits, almost all of which were dropped or dismissed. Trump’s call to Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger to “find” more votes has become infamous. Fortunately, illegal orders were circumvented. Institutions held fast.

Those structural safeguards could easily disappear. Conservative think tank The Heritage Foundation and other allied organizations have put forth an authoritarian vision for the future called Project 2025. If enacted, thousands of professionals and experts across the federal government would likely be purged. Their replacements? Loyalists who declare fealty to the new boss, potentially even over the Constitution. That’s particularly scary when it comes to the Justice Department and the military.

With yes men in charge of the chain of command, who would say ‘no’ when it came time to shoot or jail peaceful protestors? According to his own Secretary of Defense Mark Esper, Trump wanted the National Guard to shoot civilians during the George Floyd protests of 2020. He wanted to use the Insurrection Act to wield the military as a hammer to smash dissent. He was stopped by the Posse Comitatus Act, which severely limits the use of the military on American soil. As it currently stands, there are institutions in place to check such impulses of a power-mad president. Unfortunately, there are also plans in place to spend the next four years destroying those institutions. If successful - and with enough buy-in from military commanders and prosecutors - the government could violently end the peaceful transfer of power. With half the populace in support, they could even get away with it.

But, unlike Alex Garland’s film and the original Civil War, the geography and causes of America’s current partisan divide aren’t so clear cut. In 1861, a century of economic and cultural divisions over slavery cleaved the country pretty much in half geographically. It’s natural for filmmakers, as a shorthand for an American audience, to describe division in those state-versus-state terms. The reality is a much more complicated tapestry. In the almost two centuries since the Civil War, American politics have evolved beyond a simple north vs south dichotomy.

From a 10,000 foot view, yes: there is red state America and blue state America. The truth on the ground, however, isn’t quite so simple. The political map of every city and state is more gradient than binary. Broadly speaking, cities and dense urban metropolitan areas tend to be blue and Democrat. Conversely, less-dense rural areas tend to be red and Republican. The places in between are purple, often swinging between one political party and the other.

Setting aside the unlikelihood of a political and military alliance between California and Texas, they serve as the best examples of this evolving trend. The Republican party has, for decades, used the Texas government and its courts as laboratories for conservative legislation. Despite this, major metropolitan centers like Dallas, Houston, and Austin have become bluer every election. Conversely, there are millions of Republicans and conservatives in California. In point of fact, Donald Trump received more votes in California than in any other state in 2020.


In the many decades and generations since the American Civil War, much about America has changed. The Womens’ Suffrage and Civil Rights movements expanded the voice of the nation. More importantly, even as the partisan divide grows deeper, Americans’ interdependence on one another expands. Red, rural America is the breadbasket of the nation. Conservative America feeds both the nation and a good portion of the world. At the same time, blue cities and states are the economic engine of both the country and the planet, helping to make the United States the richest country in the history of the world - even if those riches aren’t dispersed equitably. States breaking away from one another isn’t as practical as it was in the 1860s: there are red and blue divides within states that would cause internal conflict and strife. Our economies and supply chains rely upon one another, and disruptions would cause immediate internal divisions within any rebellious factions.

It’s true: the events of the 2010s and 2020s so far and the spread of misinformation online have highlighted major weaknesses in American culture. Bad actors have used modern technology and major events like the COVID pandemic to sow discord between neighbors. But, ultimately, all of the people on the planet are neighbors. Our connections and reliance on one another are what give us a chance to overcome and bridge any differences we may have. More importantly, they are bonds that massively reduce the likelihood - despite the machinations of politics - of Alex Garland-esque Civil War. We hope.