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VOICE OVER: Rebecca Brayton WRITTEN BY: Michael Wynands
Here are all the reasons why Joaquin Phoenix will win Best Actor at the Oscars for his performance in "Joker" (2019). For this list, we'll be looking at the Oscar buzz surrounding Joaquin Phoenix's Joker performance and why he's destined to finally win. Our countdown of why Phoenix will win Best Actor at the Academy Awards includes the Joker's past Oscar success, his win at the Golden Globes, the Academy's soft spot for villains, and more!

#10: It’s the Most Talked-About Performance of the Year

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Joaquin Phoenix is nothing if not consistent. Pretty much every performance he’s turned in since he rose to prominence at the turn of the century has been well-received. But even by his own high standard of excellence, his performance as Arthur Fleck is a standout. The critics were almost unanimously blown away - even those who otherwise took issue with the film. Rolling Stone’s Peter Travers proclaimed himself to be at a loss for words after seeing Joaquin’s performance, and Mark Kermode of the Observer called Joaquin the film’s “ace card.” Both among critics and the cinemagoing masses, this is THE performance that people can’t stop discussing.

#9: He's the Bookies’ Favorite

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We’re definitely not saying that you should be putting down money on Joaquin Phoenix to win, but hey, if there’s anybody who needs to have a handle on the odds, it’s the people whose livelihoods depend on it. And the odds are indeed looking good for Phoenix to take home the big prize. Now, oddsmakers have different methodologies, and the actual odds change all the time. But major books have Phoenix heavily favored, sometimes in the range of -2000, which sounds bad but is actually overwhelmingly good . . . you’d have to bet a LOT to get a relatively paltry return if he wins. In other words, they think Joaquin is something close to a sure bet.

#8: Social Relevance Always Plays Well

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The Academy likes a movie with a message. “Moonlight,” “Dallas Buyers Club”, “Spotlight” . . . these are the films that resonate! And though the themes and subject matter explored in “Joker” are definitely heavy (and downright controversial), there’s no denying that, despite being set in the 1980s, “Joker” feels relevant. Questions of mental health, alienation, class division and senseless acts of violence are all at the forefront of society’s current public discourse, and Joker touches on all of them. Now, this logic arguably applies more directly to the “Best Picture” category than Best Actor. But given that Phoenix’s performance is the beating heart of the film, he is very much the embodiment of all those societal themes.

#7: Joker Feels Like an Old-School Scorsese Film

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Director Todd Phillips wears his Scorsese influence on his sleeve with “Joker”. Both the film’s cinematography and its treatment of the central character feel very reminiscent of the iconic filmmaker’s earlier works - most notably “Taxi Driver” and “The King of Comedy”. Though he dropped out before production began, Scorsese was originally attached as a producer. Even without the involvement of the legendary director, however, Phillips went ahead and made this an overt homage. “Joker” might technically be a comic book movie, but it’s first and foremost a character study in the same vein as “Raging Bull.” And when character comes first, in a film reminiscent of such classics, that definitely appeals to the Academy.

#6: The Joker Is a Character With an Awards History

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It’s no secret that superhero films, despite being the leading force at the box office, get very little love from the award ceremonies. There’s always been a line drawn between film as entertainment and film as art, and comic book movies have typically — with few exceptions — been labelled “entertainment”. Last year, “Black Panther” made history as the first superhero film to be nominated for Best Picture. But before that, Jack Nicholson was nominated for a Golden Globe for his turn as the Joker, laying the groundwork for Heath Ledger’s posthumous Best Supporting Actor award. An actor should never sign up for a comic book movie with Oscar aspirations, but if they do… Joker is the role they should want.

#5: His Competition Isn’t as Steep

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We don’t mean that as a slight to any of Joaquin’s fellow nominees; they all delivered truly knockout performances. But when it comes to the Academy, as we’ve noted, buzz is a big factor, and Phoenix has claimed much of it for himself this year. Adam Driver was phenomenal in “Marriage Story”, but he shares the spotlight with Scarlett Johansson, while “Joker” is the Phoenix show. After DiCaprio’s “The Revenant” win, and compared to Arthur Fleck, Rick Dalton feels like he commands less attention. As for Antonio Banderas and Jonathan Pryce, neither of their respective films generated enough buzz, despite the high quality of their acting. We’d like to think that Phoenix’s performance would win any year, but this year’s competition helps his odds.

#4: The Academy Is Making Efforts to Stay Relevant

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Though they may be considered the highest honors in film, the Academy Awards ceremony has notably been struggling with viewership in recent years. The organizers have tried everything to keep people engaged, even going so far as to hand out awards during commercial breaks. And though it’s the voting members who ultimately decide who gets nominated and who doesn’t, there seems to be a clear shift in mentality towards a more populist approach. In short, the Academy seems to be including more films that the general public cares about. A “Best Picture” win for a fantasy film involving an interspecies relationship (The Shape of Water) and Rami Malek’s Best Actor win both feel representative of a shift closer towards popular opinion.

#3: He Won at the Golden Globes

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Earlier, we said that Joaquin Phoenix isn’t up against very steep competition this year. And if you’re in need of proof, one need only look at how he’s been cleaning up at the various award ceremonies that are scheduled before the Oscars. He’s already claimed wins in the Critics' Choice Movie Awards, the Screen Actors Guild Awards and (most crucially), the Golden Globe in the Best Actor – Motion Picture Drama. While all major award shows help to predict which actor will ultimately claim the Oscar, the Golden Globes “Drama” categorically has historically had the strongest correlation. It’s also worth noting that “Joker” won the Golden Lion at the Venice film festival, which while not an acting award, usually foreshadows good things across the board at the Oscars.

#2: The Academy Loves Evil

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And honestly, isn’t that something we can all relate to? There’s just something so compelling about a villain. In the case of the Academy voters specifically, however, they tend to have a bit of a soft spot for performances that take actors to a dark place. Many a recognizable and likable actor, better known for playing morally upright roles, have finally realized their Oscar dreams by playing the bad guy. The examples are numerous, but just to name a few: Denzel Washington in “Training Day”, Charlize Theron in “Monster”, J.K. Simmons in “Whiplash, “Christoph Waltz in “Inglourious Basterds”, and Kathy Bates in “Misery”. The key factor is that these characters aren’t just dislikable, they’re overtly villainous. And in 2019, it didn’t get more evil than “Joker”.

#1: He’s Long Overdue

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Joaquin Phoenix is undeniably among the most talented actors of his generation. But like Leonardo DiCaprio, he’s had bad luck with the Oscars. He’s been nominated for Best Supporting Actor once and now, including “Joker”, three times in the Best Actor category. DiCaprio finally got his moment in the spotlight when he took home the gold for his role in 2015’s “The Revenant”. And while he’s also a nominee this year, it seems clear that it’s Phoenix’s turn. Quite frankly, there are few roles he’s turned in over the last two decades that aren’t Oscar-worthy. We know that the Academy doesn’t vote based on the cumulative value of performances throughout an actor’s career, but really… it’s time that Phoenix be recognized by his peers.

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