Top 10 Technology Predictions That Turned Out to be False

Whether they’re pitching a new kitchen utensil or a weapon for the military, inventors will always promote their new-fangled gadgets as the be all and end all. Take Hiram Maxim, for example. After inventing the first automatic machine gun, he was supposedly asked by British doctor and writer Havelock Ellis whether he thought his Maxim gun would make war more terrible. Maxim replied by saying machine guns would not only make war less terrible; they would make it impossible. He has unfortunately been proven false on multiple occasions.

It’s natural for people to defend their stream of income and success, and that is what BBC radio broadcaster Mary Somerville did in 1948 when she called the up-and-coming medium of television a “flash in the pan,” claiming it’d never last. By the 1950s, TV was the dominant form of telecommunication; it shaped public attitudes and has since become one of the biggest types of in-house entertainment, with an average of 44 million sold in North America each year. As opposed to radio sales, which were… significantly less.

Who knows what motivated business mogul Alan Sugar to famously say the iPod would be “dead, finished, gone, kaput” by Christmas 2005. Needless to say, he was wrong. So you’d think others would learn from his mistake, and not make such predictions when a piece of hardware like the iPhone went on sale in mid-2007. However, former Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer said: “There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance.” 51-million units sold in Q4 of 2013 sounds pretty significant to us.

A hunk of metal that soars through the air and across coastlines? Surely only a small aircraft can pull that off. At least, that was the conclusion a Boeing engineer came to after the first flight of the Boeing Model 247 in 1933. Touted as the first truly modern airliner, the 247 held just 10 people. Since then, aviation has evolved massively, thanks to the contributions of people like Howard Hughes. Currently, the biggest passenger airliner is the Airbus A380, which can house over 850 people.

There are plenty of people who think computers will cause the fall of humanity. But at the very least, the idea of the Millennium bug was put to rest the minute the clock struck 12:00 on January 1st, 2000. As early as the mid-‘80s, theorists and experts were suggesting that the year 2000 was judgment day – at least where machines were concerned. That’s when computers would go haywire because their systems couldn’t handle a switch from ’99 to double-zero. A much-hyped countdown to D-day followed, until the ball dropped and nothing happened.

The idea of exploring the mysterious abyss that lay beyond planet Earth was still considered by many to be impossible, even in the early 20th century. The New York Times, even then a reputable source of news, was one publication that said point blank in 1936 that “a rocket will never leave the Earth’s atmosphere.” That was proven false just over two decades later when the Russians launched Sputnik. And then, of course, the Americans put a man on the moon in 1969, blasting that theory to bits.

Many things in the tech world turn out to be hoaxes; but X-rays – like the ability to conduct heart and brain surgery – weren’t one of them. At their inception, X-rays were said to be quite dangerous; but, when used correctly, quite unbelievable when it came to medical advancements. But, mathematical physicist and engineer William Thomson wasn’t convinced, and flat-out announced his belief that they were a hoax. However, shortly after, X-ray inventor Wilhelm Röntgen was able to convince The Lord Kelvin of their veracity, and the rest is history.

Okay, pilot Eddie Rickenbacker’s prediction of flying cars by 1944 was way off the mark. But, arguably a more realistic automotive prediction was made in 1883 by Ford stockholder Horace Rackham, when he refused to believe the president of the Michigan Savings Bank when he said “The horse is here to stay, but the automobile is only a novelty – a fad.” Rackham bought 50 shares in the fledgling company, and ultimately became a millionaire when the Ford Motor Company became wildly successful. Talk about unsound financial advice.

#2: “640KB ought to be enough [PC memory] for anybody”
- Bill Gates, co-founder of Microsoft (early 1970s)