Why Climate Change is Now Inevitable | Unveiled

Why Climate Change Is Now Inevitable

While humanity has historically conjured up all kinds of bizarre, doomsday scenarios to be scared of, few have been as tangible or credible as climate change. Reports vary on exactly how severe the situation is and what adjustments we need to make to save ourselves, but the increasing majority of scientists are in agreement: climate change is happening, and worse, we might be beyond the point of no return.

This is Unveiled, and today we’re uncovering the extraordinary reasons why climate change could now be inevitable.

The 2015 Paris Agreement saw signatories pledge to make every effort to prevent temperatures from rising higher than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. In 2018, the UN reported that we only had twelve years to act until temperatures rose more than that goal… so, it’s often said that we have until the year 2030 to drastically cut down our CO2 emissions or else we’ll face the consequences.

Some scientists, though, have suggested that even these forecasts aren’t pressing enough, and that the truth is much more concerning. One problem is that some view the Paris Agreement dates as not taking into account various “tipping points” - which are points of no return when climate change effects accelerate beyond what’s manageable. For example, findings were presented at a different UN summit in March of 2019, where the focus was brought onto melting permafrost. As Arctic regions are melting faster and faster, with more and more ice disappearing every year, it’s thought that we’re rapidly approaching a “tipping point” here. According to some estimates, more than half of Arctic permafrost is under threat because of too high levels of CO2 already in the atmosphere. If that amount of frost melts away, the release of methane could trigger local (and global) temperature rises by as much as five degrees Celsius - a massive increase on the 1.5 degrees that the Paris Agreement is trying to scale back. For another example of a potential “tipping point” there’s the situation in the Amazon rainforest, where it’s feared massive deforestation will irreparably transform the entire region into an arid savanna - a change which would have devastating effects both locally and globally.

We see warnings and stories about seemingly isolated cases like these quite frequently nowadays, and yet it’s been found that we, climate scientists included, habitually underestimate the danger that climate change poses. It’s not necessarily a deliberate response, but according to the multi-authored 2019 study, “Discerning Experts”, it’s because of the scrutiny that climatologists continually face from the wider public (and especially from climate change deniers) that there’s a tendency for them to use and publish lower estimates rather than their higher ones. In effect, the studies we increasingly read about are actually all-too-often the “best case scenario” rather than the “worst”.

It’s a state of mind that drives even international policy, with it now thought that the Paris Agreement’s 1.5-degree target would only really address the minimum temperature spike that experts are expecting – in reality, that spike could be much higher. Say the less low-ball and so more frightening estimates come true - including some predicted temperature increases of more than five degrees Celsius by the end of the twenty-first century - then we could wind up being way off where we need to be, even were the Paris targets met. A net 3.5-degree increase or more would dramatically change the face of the planet.

All of this isn’t to say that the situation is hopeless, only that action is urgently needed... and inaction, it seems, may have already cost us. Various nations have now made various pledges to become carbon neutral by a certain date - in the UK, it’s “by 2050”, for example - but there’s increasing argument that carbon neutrality isn’t enough anymore; instead, we should be aiming to be carbon negative by removing existing CO2 from the atmosphere. As we discovered in a past video, we do have plans and some of the technology to do this… but carbon negative tech has been slow off the ground so far.

Of course, and as climate sceptics are quick to highlight, climate change isn’t only a man-made phenomenon. It does also happen naturally and, while scientific evidence is clear that our lifestyles are what’s driving the current climate crisis, the Earth’s climate has drastically changed of its own accord in the past. With or without a human presence, this planet’s atmospheric conditions are always shifting. Even if we do, miraculously, manage to reach all our climate goals within the next few decades, reverse the onslaught of global warming, restore the ice caps and empty the skies of man-made greenhouse gases, the chances are that we will still go through a dangerous climate catastrophe of some kind in the future. That’s just nature. But most experts agree that that isn’t what’s happening now.

Examples of large-scale climatological changes in Earth’s past are our ice ages. An ice age naturally occurs every 100,000 years or so largely because of very small, slow changes in the relationship between the Earth and the sun. But the fact that ice ages do happen isn’t enough to shift blame for the unprecedented environmental effects we’re currently seeing. In fact, according to the Royal Society, temperatures are increasing at more than ten times the rate now as they would after a natural ice age. But, even if today’s climate crisis were just a naturally occurring part of life, it still wouldn’t make much sense to downplay its significance or show a lack of concern; after all, previous ice ages have still caused mass extinctions.

So, the problem is two-fold. On the one hand we’re seemingly failing to recognise the threat; on the other, we’re not doing enough to prepare for what’s to come - at least, not according to the scientists and commentators who are most worried. For those demanding that more is done, our current efforts to quell climate change have been largely ineffective thanks to the world’s main polluters failing to adequately combat it. According to the 2017 CDP Carbon Majors Report, more than 50% of all industrial emissions contributing to human-led climate change are generated by just twenty-five companies around the world - all of which are, perhaps unsurprisingly, fossil fuel providers. These same emissions-producing companies also tend to rank amongst the richest in the world, though, meaning that many are reluctant to change their business models.

The biggest polluter on the planet, however, is the US military, which reportedly produces more emissions on its own than most other countries do in total! Considering that America’s Trump Administration also oversaw perhaps the highest profile withdrawal from the Paris Agreement back in 2017, the footprint created by the United States military is even more concerning for climate activists. Elsewhere in the States, other policies have attracted attention, too. For example, in 2018, plans to produce more fuel-efficient cars were reportedly scrapped by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. We’ve seen other, seemingly backwards steps taken in other countries, as well.

As a result, there’s now a growing argument that (as well as trying to stem emissions and counter climate change) we really should be “preparing for the worst”. Should our worst (or even more moderate) climate fears be realised, then Earth could soon have a climate refugee crisis on its hands… requiring things like affordable housing away from coastlines; larger settlements in more northerly regions, away from the equator; and renewable energy systems reliable enough to power it all. The emergence in recent years of various high-tech, innovative solutions to both reduce emissions and to combat apparently inevitable temperature hikes in the future are certainly a positive, but there’s clamour for practical and achievable answers, too.

While there is still uncertainty concerning exactly the shape our future will take, it’s clear that climate change won’t be stopped any time soon. There’s no quick fix and the global situation won’t be “wrong one day”, and “right the next”. But, it’s still a case of action versus inaction. Whether it’s helping to pass legislation to aid the environment on a large scale, or taking small choices - like walking to work, taking public transport and recycling - everyone can do something. If the many effects of human-led climate change are now inevitable, then perhaps our efforts to reduce emissions and put things right should be just as determined.