20 Questions That Will Determine the 2024 US Presidential Election
Will There Be a Presidential Debate?
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Both Joe Biden and Donald Trump have signaled a desire to avoid a presidential debate. Trump skipped the Republican primary debates altogether. In 2022, Trump forced the Republican Party to withdraw from the Commission on Presidential Debates. If a debate took place, would Joe Biden be a gaffe machine or could he use the forum to quash any worries about his sharpness? Would Donald Trump’s usual bombast win the day, or has the shtick gotten stale? The two men appear to be playing a game of chicken, waiting for the other to pull out and accept the blame.
Can Biden Overcome His Poll Numbers?
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President Biden’s poll numbers started out strong, but particularly since the hasty troop pullout from Afghanistan, his numbers have taken a beating. The withdrawal from Afghanistan - despite public support and despite having been initiated by Trump - took a toll. Since then, the public’s approval of Biden’s handling of everything from the border to the economy has been lower than Trump’s. He’s taken drubbings in the media, and good polling news has been few and far between since the midterms. Still, despite those numbers, Democrats have been racking up wins up and down the ballot. Will Biden’s poll numbers improve? If they don’t, will it matter?
Can the GOP and Trump Catch Up on Fundraising?
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At the end of 2023, the RNC was running low on funds. And some big money donors who were dissatisfied with Trump spent tens of millions in the GOP primary. Republican candidates down-ballot are going to need financial support. Then, there are Trump's legal costs. As of this video, the former president is trying to install a die-hard supporter at the top of the RNC, and the organization's number two would be Trump’s daughter-in-law. Prognosticators fear that donations will be directed to Trump’s legal defense and judgements. Meanwhile Biden is outraising Trump personally, and down-ballot Democrats are doing well. Will it make a difference?
What Is the Status of the Swing States?
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Thanks to the Electoral College, seven states - really, as few as three - will determine the fate of the election. Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin - the former ‘blue wall states’ are everything. The margin in those states has been less than 100,000 people in each of the last two presidential elections. Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina also have a part to play. Will Biden's accomplishments help him with unions in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Nevada? Or, will Trump's cultural appeal to working class voters win the day as in 2016? The Democrats have been banking on reverse coattails saving Biden: local races and down ballot candidates who are very popular could bring out enough voters out to make the difference
Can Biden Overcome His Deficit with African American Voters?
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Former Vice President Joe Biden was floundering after the first two democratic primaries in 2020. It was African American voters in South Carolina who gave Biden the momentum he needed to win the primary and the White House. As with many Democratic constituencies, enthusiasm for Biden has dropped precipitously among these voters in the last four years. Economic concerns and dissatisfaction with Gaza, in particular, have soured some younger Black voters on the president. At the same time, the lingering threat of white supremacist power has many African Americans afraid of a second Trump term. Can Biden regain their confidence? Will their fear of Trump be enough to juice turnout?
Will Trump Be Kept Off the Ballot?
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A number of legal pundits, including renowned conservative judge J. Michael Luttig, have been banging one particular drum for over a year. According to their theory, section three of the 14th Amendment prevents insurrectionist officials from regaining office. They’ve filed legal briefs in multiple states to pull Donald Trump from the ballot. As of this video, several states including Maine and Colorado have taken this theory and run with it. The Supreme Court has heard arguments challenging Colorado’s ruling. Legal experts believe that this challenge is DOA in the conservative Supreme Court. Still, if there is a SCOTUS surprise, how many states will it affect? Will red states create an excuse to drop Biden in response, and will any of it matter?
Will the GOP Caucus Turn off Voters?
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Some Democratic operatives believe they’ve found the secret sauce for 2024 electoral victory: run on Republicans being weirdos. This Republican-controlled 118th Congress is one of the least productive in history. They’ve burned through multiple Speakers of the House, are pushing messaging that only appeals to their far right base, and are engaged in vicious infighting. They support unpopular abortion bans, kill conservative bills to address the border, and refuse to aid Ukraine. In February, the NY-03 special election to replace George Santos may be a bellwether. It flipped nearly 16 points in less than two years. Centrist voters and independents may be sick of the GOP shtick: roadblocks are less popular than governing. Can Trump win without an actual vision for governing?
Do Institutions of Democracy Hold Again?
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After the 2020 election, Donald Trump tried everything he could to maintain his grip on power. He filed lawsuits and pressured local election officials to change vote tallies. But state and federal courts rejected spurious claims. Up and down state and local bureaucracies, institutions held. But the threat didn't end there. He accused poll workers like Ruby Freeman of committing fraud without any evidence. Threats have flooded election offices around the country, and local governments have been quietly sounding the alarm as they have hemorrhaged workers. People have been too scared for their personal safety. Worse, extremist Trump supporters have made a concerted effort to fill those positions themselves. Will institutions hold again in 2024?
Will Third-Party Candidates Spoil the Race?
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Whether correct or not, many political observers credited third-party candidate Ross Perot with spoiling the election in 1992. The same has been said of Ralph Nader in 2000, and Jill Stein in 2016. Between a potential No-Labels 'centrist' candidate and RFK Junior, third party candidates could affect the 2024 election. At least, conservatives who support Trump think so. Both No-Labels and RFK Jr. have been funded by major Trump and GOP donors. However, Joe Manchin — West Virginia senator and potential No-Labels candidate — has announced that he will not run. RFK, who has expressed interest in the Libertarian party, is likely not going to get their endorsement. The possibility of any major third-party challenger making the ballot is up in the air.
Will the End of Roe Continue to Help Democrats?
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President Biden and Vice President Harris kicked off their 2024 campaign with a pro-abortion rights rally on the anniversary of Roe v. Wade. The Democrats are counting on abortion rights to help put them over the top. It may not be a bad bet: everywhere abortion is on the ballot - even in deep red states like Kentucky and Kansas - the issue is a winner. Abortion propelled Democrats to victories in special elections all over the country. It also helped prevent a red wave for Republicans in the 2022 midterms. The GOP keeps pushing an unpopular anti-abortion agenda, promoting a national ban, and huge swaths of the country are becoming virtual OBGYN deserts, as doctors fear the legal consequences of providing healthcare.
Will Anti-Trump Republicans Endorse Biden?
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The 2020 presidential election was historic in a number of ways. One surprising bit of history: the roughly 100 Republican officials and former officials who endorsed Joe Biden. They saw Trump as an existential threat, and chose to put country over party. The 2022 midterms saw something similar. Congresswoman Liz Cheney, the face of the anti-Trump Republican movement, endorsed a handful of national security Democrats for congress. It was the first time she had ever done so, believing that the current iteration of the Republican party is too irresponsible to be trusted with power. Will she - and other Republicans - endorse Biden? Will Nikki Haley and Chris Christie join those ranks? Would those endorsements make a difference with swing state moderate voters?
What Role Will Inflation Play?
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The COVID-19 pandemic wreaked havoc on the world’s economies. Inflation spread like wildfire. But the U.S. has had one of the strongest post-COVID economic recoveries on the planet. The rate of inflation has gone down more effectively than any other developed nation. Despite the Federal Reserve raising interest rates to cool the economy, job numbers are consistently good and fears of a recession have receded. Still, bizarrely, Joe Biden gets virtually no credit, and polls show that voters trust Trump more on the economy. Will that trend continue? One potential clue is ‘consumer sentiment.’ Early 2024 data show that consumers are finally starting to feel better about the economy. Will this help Biden turn his numbers around?
How Important Is Gaza as an Election Issue?
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Some voters, particularly left-wing and Muslim-Americans, are furious with Joe Biden over the issue of Gaza. Wherever Biden goes, protesters follow shouting “Genocide Joe.” (xref) Young voters, especially, are impassioned. Benjamin Netanyahu is in a political quagmire and is incentivized to keep the war in Gaza going as long as possible. He is deeply unpopular in Israel, but remains ensconced in power as long as the war continues. Biden has disparaged Netanyahu in private, but has done little publicly to distance the U.S. from Israel's actions, or, seemingly, exert much influence. How this plays - particularly in Michigan and Minnesota which each have large Muslim populations - could make a swing state difference.
Will the GOP Help Ukraine?
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Though the Senate passed a bipartisan foreign aid bill, it appears as of mid-February to be DOA in the House. Without that support aid, it seems very possible that Ukrainian freedom will eventually be in big trouble. Ukrainian fighters are literally running out of ammunition. If Ukraine falls to Russia, NATO countries could be next to be attacked. In an interview with Tucker Carlson, Putin denied any interest in pushing further west. Still, to those who understand history, the way he spoke about Poland subtly signaled a desire to invade. Trump consistency mischaracterizes the NATO alliance, often describing it like a mafia protection racket. During a campaign stop, Trump said that he would encourage Putin to invade any NATO country that 'doesn't pay.' Will voters care?
Will There Be a Wider War in the Middle East?
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Ever since the 10/7 Hamas attack, the region has been balanced on the edge of a knife. The war in Gaza is still raging, with thousands of innocent Gazans - mostly children - paying the price. Meanwhile, Iranian proxies are ramping up both rhetoric and attacks. The Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon are champing at the bit for a larger regional war. The Houthis have attacked shipping lanes to disrupt international commerce. The U.S. has retaliated with bombing runs. Iranian proxies in Iraq killed several U.S. soldiers and wounded dozens of others, prompting more retaliation. Still, Biden and Iran are both signaling de-escalation. Can cooler heads prevail, or will the war continue, pulling in the rest of the world?
Can Biden Convince His Critics to Embrace His Successes?
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"That was yesterday, what can you do for me today?" It’s a perennial problem in American politics that all presidents endure. Most presidents, though, have a shorter list of accomplishments than Joe Biden. The American Rescue Plan helped stabilize the economy. The CHIPS and Science Act has helped high tech manufacturing in the U.S. and America is in the middle of an expansion of manufacturing after decades of industry layoffs and closures. The Inflation Reduction Act is the biggest climate bill in American history. America is in a green energy boom. Sweden and Finland joined NATO and Ukraine is, as of now, still fighting hard. In many respects, Biden has been ranked a very successful president, but can he sell that message to voters?
Will the Definition of Democracy Itself Be an Issue?
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In 2020 and 2022, the pundit class slammed Joe Biden for focusing on democracy as an election issue. He ignored naysayers and voters proved its huge relevance. Unfortunately, democracy is as salient an issue in 2024 as it was in the midterms. MAGA supporters have unveiled “Project 2025,” a plan to replace career civil servants with right-wing ideologues in a Trump presidency. Ostensibly independent judges with lifetime tenure on the Supreme Court keep taking more and more prominence during an era of deadlocked partisanship. Pro-democratic voices keep sounding the alarm that democracy itself is on the line in 2024. Will voters believe them? Even if they do, will it matter to voters as much as the border and ‘kitchen table’ economic issues?
Will Biden or Trump’s Age Be a Determining Factor?
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Voters left, right, and center are concerned about Joe Biden's age. His public appearances tend to involve shorter speeches than they used to. His arthritic spine causes him to walk in a stilted manner, making him look older. Though people who have dealt with him - including ex-speaker McCarthy - confirm he is still sharp, the concerns remain. Trump, too, is less coherent in public speeches than he used to be. Republicans pound Biden’s age while ignoring the same liability in Trump. The Democrats have not done much to assuage concerns, and are even sometimes dismissive. Still, poll after poll cite Biden’s age as a significant concern. If the Biden camp can't find a way to message his fitness, his campaign could be at risk.
Who Gets the Blame for the Border Crisis?
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Democrats have long de-emphasized the southern border as a political issue, while Republicans have historically over-emphasized its importance. But these days it’s an issue that cannot be ignored. Southern Governors like Greg Abbot in Texas have pushed the issue to the point of a constitutional crisis. Polls have shown that voters trust Trump on the border more than Biden. But the special election on Long Island to replace George Santos painted a dire picture for the GOP, as voters were furious at Trump and House Republicans for killing a conservative border bill. If Democrats can pin the problems at the border on Trump and the GOP, that could win Biden a second term.
Will Voters Care About Trump’s Charges?
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Donald Trump is facing 91 criminal counts in multiple jurisdictions. He was found civilly liable for abusing and defaming E. Jean Carroll, and massive financial fraud in New York. Trump’s legal strategy has been focused on delaying as many of his trials as possible until after the election. His fears are well founded - the polls that show him beating Joe Biden flip if he were to be convicted of a crime. He’s thrown a legal Hail Mary, pushing a dubious legal theory that, as president, he was immune from criminal prosecution. Will the Supreme Court allow him to delay his cases, or will they punt? Can he delay his trials until after the election? If not, will a conviction tank his candidacy? Are there any news junkies out there who think we left a major question off our list? Let us know in the comments below.
